Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
811 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH LAUNCH. HAD A SMALL CUB SCOUT GROUP OBSERVE FLIGHT
THIS EVENING. COLUMN WAS BEGINNING TO SATURATE FROM TOP-DOWN AS
PROFILE BELOW 500 MB REMAINS DRY BUT SATURATED ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS RISEN TO 0.52 INCHES FROM MORNING SOUNDING. A SHALLOW
SURFACE BASED ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 1600 FT THEN ISOTHERMAL
INVERSION TO 5600 FT IN A LAYER APPEARS TO BE ONSET OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROCESS. A STEEP LAPSE RATE THEN PROCEEDS TO BASE OF ELEVATED
SATURATED LAYER AT 480 MB WHERE THICKENING CIRRUS DECK EXISTED AT
LAUNCH. WIND PROFILE SHOWED LIGHT SE WINDS AT SURFACE VEERING TO
SW 10-35KT FROM 3500 TO 10KFT...W 35-105 KT FROM 10KFT TO
TROPOPAUSE AT 40.3KFT. PEAK WIND 264/104 KT AT 39.2KFT. BALLOON
BURST AT 7.8 MB AT AN ALTITUDE OF 32629 M/20.2 MILES UP OVER
KEESLER AFB 54 MILES ENE DOWNWIND. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT A NUMBER OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY/S JOURNEY WAS ALREADY GETTING UNDERWAY
AS HIGHER DEW POINTS WERE BEGINNING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF BEGINNING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH AS WELL. AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION IN THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ACT
UPON INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT WILL HELP FOCUS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WITH
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SMALL
DURING THE PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ESPECIALLY SO BY EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE OFFING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE REGION AND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PUSHES INTO THE
GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 11

LONG TERM...
A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER
MOST LAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
COME FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 11

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH
ONLY A CONTINUED STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN AREAS OF RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA.
WITH PROBABILITY OF TSRA LOW FOR ANY GIVEN TIME AND PLACE...HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z SUNDAY WITH THE LOWEST CIGS/VSBY
SETTING IN AFTER 10Z AND PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. 95

MARINE...
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
WAVES WILL BE MOSTLY IN 1 TO 3 FEET RANGE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG WITH COLDER AIR...AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. 95

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ONGOING RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  71  53  65 /  60  70  20  20
BTR  54  74  56  69 /  60  70  20  20
ASD  53  73  56  70 /  60  80  20  20
MSY  57  74  59  70 /  60  80  20  20
GPT  55  71  57  70 /  60  80  30  20
PQL  52  70  56  70 /  60  80  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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