Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
241 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED AND EXCEEDED A NORTH
SOUTH BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF JACKSON TO
MCNEIL. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE SURFACE HEATING ABATES ALTHOUGH
IT POSSIBLE THAT THEY COULD REACH THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MS COASTAL WATERS WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A BREAK IN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SO EXPECT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO BE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM DAYS. AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA...A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS NOW SUPPORT
THIS SCENARIO. HAVE OPTED TO USE A MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE BLEND AND
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERNS AVIATION WISE IS CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THE FCST SHOULD BE VFR. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
TEMPORARILY DROP VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLY DOWN TO LIFR STATUS. STRONG
WINDS GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY QUIET FCST FROM A WIND AND SEA STANDPOINT OVER
THE COASTAL WATER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AS TYPICAL CLOSE TO
THE COAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY DIURNAL CHANGES. A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG INTO THE REGION AND MAY PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF IN THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  94  72  93 /  30  30  20  30
BTR  74  95  74  94 /  30  30  20  40
ASD  73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
MSY  75  93  75  92 /  20  30  20  40
GPT  76  95  77  93 /  20  30  20  30
PQL  71  92  72  91 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-120815-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY.

MSZ077-080-111930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
124 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTH AFFECTING PEARL RIVER COUNTY...
HANCOCK COUNTY...

AT 121 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POPLARVILLE...OR ABOUT 6
MILES NORTH OF MCNEIL...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...MCNEIL AND
PICAYUNE

HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 59. DRIVERS
TRAVELING THROUGH THE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SOME
PONDING OF WATER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

CAB

MSZ081-112015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
221 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHEAST AFFECTING HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 218 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF LONG BEACH...OR ABOUT 2 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LYMAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...LONG
BEACH...GULFPORT AIRPORT...PASS CHRISTIAN...GULFPORT AND BILOXI

HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 10. DRIVERS
TRAVELING THROUGH THE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SOME
PONDING OF WATER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

CAB

MSZ080-112030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
223 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING HANCOCK COUNTY...

AT 221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PICAYUNE...OR ABOUT OVER
STENNIS SPACE CENTER...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...STENNIS
SPACE CENTER AND PEARLINGTON

HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 10. DRIVERS
TRAVELING THROUGH THE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SOME
PONDING OF WATER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

CAB

LAZ040-112030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
225 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY
PARISH...

AT 221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SLIDELL...OR ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SLIDELL AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...SLIDELL
AIRPORT AND PEARL RIVER

HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 10. DRIVERS
TRAVELING THROUGH THE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SOME
PONDING OF WATER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

MSZ082-112100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHWEST AFFECTING JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOSS POINT...OR ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MOSS POINT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
PASCAGOULA...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN...OCEAN SPRINGS AND GULF PARK
ESTATES

HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 10. DRIVERS
TRAVELING THROUGH THE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SOME
PONDING OF WATER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

CAB