Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
327 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS DEPICTED ELSEWHERE BY RADAR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. TEXAS CONVECTION FOCUSED NEAR WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY..AND ALONG CAPE/INSTABILITY AXIS. CAPES CURRENTLY
COMPUTED NEAR 4500 J/KG. THUS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PULSE
CELLS TO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOWS KEEPS CONVECTION GOING. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
END POPS INTO THE EVENING.

JULY 4TH...GOOD LOOKING DAY SETTING UP. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING SHARPLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AS LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE EAST
CONUS...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWING INTO THE PLAINS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMET THROUGH THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WITH OUR ONLY LOCATION
HANGING ONTO ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. NONE-THE-LESS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA...IT WILL DISSIPATE BY FIREWORKS TIME. SOME LOWERING OF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO OCCUR AS 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PUNCHES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH YIELDING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
ANY HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES.

WEEKEND...OPTED TO REMOVE ALL RAIN CHANCES INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
EXTENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT. RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO SET UP SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...WITH SOME
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE RETURNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS LOW AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  91  70  91  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  75  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  70  91  67  92  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
KLFT  73  92  70  93  73 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

MARCOTTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
744 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-041245-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
744 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STORMS. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...A TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WILL RETURN. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.  NO OTHER WEATHER HAZARD ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1022 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE ALEXANDRIA        31.36N 92.42W
07/02/2014                   RAPIDES            LA   PUBLIC

            PICTURE OF POWER POLES SNAPPED IN PINEVILLE.

0456 PM     HAIL             5 SW MARKSVILLE         31.07N 92.12W
07/02/2014  E0.50 INCH       AVOYELLES          LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF SMALL HAIL AROUND HESSMER

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

TXZ201-215-216-261-032130-
HARDIN TX-JEFFERSON TX-ORANGE TX-SOUTHERN JASPER TX-
335 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON AND
ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUMBERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...WEISS
BLUFF...LAKEVIEW...PINE FOREST...BEAUMONT...ROSE CITY AND VIDOR.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3005 9383 2989 9408 3028 9434 3038 9417

13