Small Craft Advisory 17, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS MOSTLY PREVAILING...WITH INTERMITTENT SCT FOR LCH/BPT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SE TX/SW LA. OTHERWISE...COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES OF TSRA AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PLACED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THIS 4 HR WINDOW OF BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WITH IFR VSBY/CEILING
FROM 02-06Z FOR BPT...03-07Z FOR LCH/AEX...AND 04-08Z FOR LFT/ARA.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...EXPECT STRONG NNW TO N WINDS ~20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT IN ITS WAKE...ALONG WITH LINGERING -RA AND
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS NOW SHOW IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EXCEPT FOR BEAUMONT. CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL RISE INTO VFR RANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON
MAINLY IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL BE MONITORING SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

06

SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACRS THE AREA. A LAYER OF STRATOCU HAS
BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN ON SLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT THAT EXTENDS FM CNTL ARK SW INTO CNTL TX.
ALOFT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DESERT
SW AS WEAK RIDGING SHIFTS EAST...WITH WINDS OVER THE REGION
BECOMING MORE SWLY.

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A MOIST GULF
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND DEEPEN OVER THE REGION WITH PW
VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACRS
TX TODAY...SPREADING EAST INTO OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN AS THE
UPPER TROF AND SFC FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND CARRIED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS THE NWRN ZONES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
BAND OF HIGHEST POPS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACRS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE ERN ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CAPPING ALOFT THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LVLS BECOMES ENHANCED DUE TO
FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING CAP...INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MAINLY IN
A NARROW ZONE ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID
LVLS OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW LVL JET SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ONLY REACHING THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK FM THE PRECIP ON MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS FOR MARDI GRAS LOOK CLOUDY AND COOL WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN SHOULD STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLT TO LOW END CHC RANGE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. AFTER
MORNING LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 40S DURING THE AFTN. FOR EVENING
FESTIVITIES...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ROBUST...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE GULF FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE NW
GULF THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO STAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL ALSO
REINFORCE NLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN...BUT KEPT CHCS ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE.

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AS WARM AND MOIST AIR TRAVELS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL SHELF
WATERS. THIS FOG COULD BECOME DENSE IN ISOLATED SPOTS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. A GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  42  51  34  46 /  20  80  10  10  30
KBPT  76  40  51  36  47 /  20  80  10  20  40
KAEX  80  37  44  29  45 /  20  80  10  10  20
KLFT  75  45  50  33  46 /  10  80  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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