Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Lake Charles, LA

003 
WWUS54 KLCH 290104
SVSLCH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
804 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

TXC199-241-457-290115-
/O.CON.KLCH.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140329T0115Z/
HARDIN TX-JASPER TX-TYLER TX-
804 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN TYLER...NORTHERN JASPER AND NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTIES...

AT 801 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BROWNDELL TO MAGNOLIA
SPRINGS TO VILLAGE MILLS..MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FRED...
MT. UNION...ROGANVILLE AND CANEY HEAD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3050 9455 3051 9455 3108 9430 3116 9392
      3078 9388 3038 9417 3038 9470 3050 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 270DEG 40KT 3107 9396 3079 9401
          3049 9429

$$

24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39 NOW INCLUDES JEFFERSON AND ORANGE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SABINE LAKE AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE WATCH. WATCH GOES THROUGH 10 PM CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM SECTOR OF A STORM SYSTEM IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WHAT SEEMS LIKE THE MOST HUMID AIR SO FAR THIS
CALENDAR YEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
(LAKE CHARLES HAS REACHED 80F OFFICIALLY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
CALENDAR YEAR) AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F.
CURRENTLY AIR MASS IS CAPPED...AND THIS HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A
DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM ITS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THIS DRY LINE. AS SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS
EJECTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT...IT WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE
SOUTHEAST MERGING WITH THE DRY LINE AND PUSHING THE LOW CENTER TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO NEAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AFTER 29/00Z OR 7 PM LOCAL. CAP SHOULD LESSEN WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK OR
MODEST. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH...ALONG
WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...TO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF I-10. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
38 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL. WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
HAZARD...ALTHOUGH SOME DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SABINE INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA...AND MAY KEEP THE STRENGTH GOING BEFORE INSTABILITY
WEAKENS AND BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SO
WILL ALSO HAVE SOME SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS FOR THE LOUISIANA
ZONES NORTH OF I-10 BEFORE 06Z. FURTHER SOUTH...BIT OF A MARINE
LAYER MAY KEEP ENOUGH CAPPING IN PLACE TO KEEP STORMS BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THE HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING AND THUS WARMER MORE HUMID AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AGAIN BY MID WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR (AIR
TEMPERATURE IN LOW 70S DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S) OVER
RELATIVELY COOLER GULF WATERS (LOW TO MID 60S.) THE RESULT IS THE
RE-FORMATION OF SEA FOG THIS MID AFTERNOON. AWOS AT CAMERON RECENTLY
DROPPED BACK DOWN TO 1/2SM WITH A PLATFORM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAMERON
ALSO AT 1/2SM. THEREFORE...A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR TO DISPERSE
THE FOG. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  76  50  73  50 /  50  10   0   0   0
KBPT  60  77  50  73  53 /  40  10   0   0   0
KAEX  59  74  45  73  45 /  70  10   0   0   0
KLFT  62  74  47  74  48 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
544 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
291045-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
544 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...THOUGH THE AREA OF
GREATEST CONCERN IS EAST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA ADJACENT
TO THE SABINE RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

BEST THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE AND/OR DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED LINES OR CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS...BUT THE
RISK OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...CARRYING THE SAME SEVERE
WEATHER RISK...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-291045-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
544 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL LAKES
AND BAYS AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY. THIS ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION AND MAINTENANCE OF MARINE FOG.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 34
KNOTS THE PRIMARY RISKS...THOUGH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS UNLIKELY.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD PROCEED WITH CAUTION AND BE ALERT FOR
ABRUPT CHANGES IN VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
552 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

LAZ029-033-282315-
ST. LANDRY LA-AVOYELLES LA-
552 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LANDRY AND AVOYELLES PARISHES
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUPONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...HAMBURG...
SIMMESPORT AND BIG BEND.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3121 9173 3121 9170 3118 9167 3114 9171
      3111 9170 3109 9171 3106 9171 3098 9180
      3092 9179 3083 9189 3095 9205 3123 9177

66