Severe Thunderstorm Warning 318, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
256 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY LINE
ACROSS WESTERN NEB. 19Z OB FOR KSNY HAS A 41 DEGREE DEW PT...WHILE
KOGA HAS A 64 DEGREE DEW PT. MEANWHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MORNING S DAKOTA CONVECTION HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE S DAKOTA/NEB
BORDER. CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDED BY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS STORMS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY. ALSO SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY. THE N CENTRAL ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO NE NEB...HOWEVER EXPECT THE CHERRY COUNTY
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS IT DRIFTS EAST. CAPE
VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALREADY
IN EFFECT. CONCERN WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE ACTIVITY WILL BUILD.
TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEW PTS AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S FOR SW NEB...ALTHOUGH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH. LAPS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO CAP AND VISIBLE SAT SHOWING
SOME CU DEVELOPING. EXPECT AS LEAST SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE EAST AND EXIT LATE TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER LOW POPS
AS HIGHER PROB OF IT EXITING BY 12Z. LOWS TRICKY AS CONVECTION WILL
AID IN COOLING ALTHOUGH HIGHER DEW PTS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING. HAVE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH IS MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S IN THE
EAST. BY TOMORROW MID MORNING SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS SW NEB...AND THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT CREATES A MOIST TRAJECTORY FROM WEST
TEXAS...ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE THEN CONVERGES ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER AND INCREASES THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1500-2500J/KG AND
DEEP BULK SHEAR OF 35-40KT...STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED...SEVERE WORDING WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST GRID
SET.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

GENERALLY VRF CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE BROKEN LINE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KVTN. FURTHER SOUTH LIFT
NOT AS GREAT AND COVERAGE LESS CERTAIN...THUS ONLY INCLUDING A
VCTS AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-182100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
359 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014 /259 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A MERRIMAN TO NORTH PLATTE LINE. AT THIS
TIME...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO A WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT AS
THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             ELI                     42.94N 101.44W
08/17/2014  E0.75 INCH       CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING YARD

&&

MOLDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             6 SSW ELI               42.86N 101.49W
08/17/2014  E1.50 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

MOLDAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

NEZ005-094-172130-
EASTERN CHERRY NE-WESTERN CHERRY NE-
257 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM MDT/430 PM CDT/...

AT 254 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF BROWNLEE...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MULLEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BROWNLEE...
  GIANT HILL...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 163.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 97 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 71 AND 98.

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             18 SSE ELI              42.70N 101.30W
08/17/2014  E1.25 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

MOLDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
407 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 N BROWNLEE            42.39N 100.62W
08/17/2014  E60 MPH          CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            NICKEL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

&&

ROBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
414 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             5 N BROWNLEE            42.36N 100.62W
08/17/2014  E1.75 INCH       CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE ALONG WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT
            55 TO 60 MPH.

&&

ROBERG