Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS North Platte, NE

015 
WWUS53 KLBF 190220
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
920 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

NEC161-190300-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-140519T0300Z/
SHERIDAN NE-
820 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
SHERIDAN COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM MDT...

AT 816 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ANTIOCH...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KRAUSE LAKE...WICKSON LAKE...SNOW LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE AND SMITH LAKE
STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4213 10274 4236 10276 4251 10249 4213 10225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 248DEG 23KT 4221 10269

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

ROBERG

283 
WWUS53 KLBF 190240
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
940 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

NEC161-190250-
/O.CAN.KLBF.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-140519T0300Z/
SHERIDAN NE-
840 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4213 10274 4236 10276 4251 10249 4213 10225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 248DEG 23KT 4225 10253

$$

ROBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS RISING SLOWLY INTO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY SFC
BASED CAPE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. SHORT TERM
MODELS INSIST THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
THIS EVENING...AND TRACK INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. FORCING IS WEAK...BUT RECENT CU TOWERS NEAR FORT MORGAN
HAVE PERSUADED ME TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS EVENING AS
FAR EAST AS A NORTH PLATTE TO THEDFORD LINE. OTHER STORMS...LARGELY
DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN SD
THIS EVENING...PERHAPS SKIRTING NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT.
FORCING IS A LITTLE BETTER IN THAT AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONTINUED WIND. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 50S AREA WIDE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES BE NEARLY AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER
THAN TODAY HOWEVER...SO ONLY THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL MARK
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...WITH A POST FRONTAL FLOW
DEVELOPING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING BEHIND THE
FRONT...THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
A SEVERE THREAT...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO
SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THE 0-2KM THETA-E AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FORECASTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
SHOW A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR BROKEN BOW...NORTH PLATTE AND MCCOOK SHOW
SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN CAPPING UP TO ABOUT THE 650MB LEVEL TO THE
TUNE OF ABOUT 4C AT THE BEST. EVEN A CROSS-SECTION OF THETA...
THETA-E AND AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION SUGGESTS NO DEEP
UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN FACT...THE VERTICAL MOTION IS
NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE 50-100MB SATURATION PRESSURE DEFICIT
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THOSE AREAS. IN THE NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE...UPSLOPE AIDS THE LIFT ALONG
THE BOUNDARY... SO THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY EVENING.

THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH SLIGHTLY TO NORTHERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ON THE 310K AND A CROSS-SECTION OF THE
WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE CROSS-SECTION
SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E TUESDAY EVENING AND 800MB BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOWS ABOUT 2000J/KG. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT 40-45KT...SO THE UPDRAFT COLUMN WOULD NOT SHOW
A LARGE TILT. THEREFORE...THE FAVORABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL IS NOT
REAL STRONG. IN FACT THE CROSS-SECTION SHOWS DEEP UPWARD
AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION SO...DESPITE THE DRY INDICATION IN
THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40 DETERMINISTIC PRECIPITATION...SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...THE PROBABILISTIC OUTPUT FROM THE 12Z GFS AND
THE 00Z ECMWF BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY EVENING AND LATE NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND
THE PANHANDLE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER AND THE FLOW FROM THE GULF CONTINUES...
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN SOME
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE LAST FOUR DAYS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KLBF AND KVTN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
WINDS NEAR 16018G27KT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 09Z...THEN
DIMINISH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-192045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014 /243 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF AN IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE TO BARTLETT LINE. A STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG STORM CONTAINING HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CONTAINING
HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE SEEMS UNLIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

TAYLOR