Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CONTINUATION OF THE
RIDGE/TROUGH REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING
EXTENDED NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SRN UTAH INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...A NICE 40 TO 45 KT SPEED MAX EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA NWD INTO WESTERN SD AND MT. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
A VERY WEAK CAP...HAS SUPPORTED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...STORMS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THROUGH THE MORNING...HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN STRENGTH GIVEN THE DECENT
DEGREE OF BULK SHEAR. AS OF 3 PM CDT...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 62 IN RAIN COOLED AIR AT
AINSWORTH...TO 90 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING
AND MAY POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
LOW LEVEL JET ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ATTM CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS NOT HIGH ATTM AS THE NAM SOLN
IS A TAD FARTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW LEVEL JET AND THE HRRR SOLN
PUSHES THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUIET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY 21Z THURSDAY. H85 TO H7 LAPSE
RATES WILL APPROACH 9.5 TO 10C THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE
CAP WILL WEAKEN INVOF A SURFACE TROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
ATTM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE MID AFTERNOON IN THE
PANHANDLE AND TRACK EAST. ATTM...WILL CONFINE PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ARE
STRONGLY CAPPED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY AND WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...WITH 35
TO 45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THURSDAY EVENING. INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM SWRN NEBRASKA INTO
NERN NEBRASKA...WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR STORMS TO
CONTINUE...HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES TO 20 TO 30 KTS OVERNIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL EITHER IN SOUTHWESTERN KS TO SERN
NEBRASKA PER THE NAM SOLN OR FROM NWRN KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PER THE GFS SOLN. THE GFS GENERATES A NICE AREA OF POST
FRONTAL MID LEVEL LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THIS IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN THE NAM SOLN. EVEN WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE AND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KS...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS SOLN IS
HARD TO IGNORE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE POPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH
OUT...ALLOWING SRLY WINDS TO SURGE NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE. THETA E
RIDGING AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE
AS WELL LEADING TO 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE QUICKLY LATE SAT AFTERNOON...WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AREA IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION EAST SAT EVENING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE WITH FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG
NRN STREAM COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH DO FIRE TO THE WEST UNDERNEATH THE
THETA E AXIS...SHOULD STAY MAINLY OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN THE NWRLY STEERING WINDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND POPS GENERALLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S FORMING INVOF THE SANDHILLS REGION AND/OR SW
NEBRASKA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WIND WOULD BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR NEAR ANY STORM. OTHERWISE
WERE WATCHING STORMS THAT MAY IMPACT KVTN OR KANW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
HAIL...BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WIND. CONDITIONS WILL
QUIET THIS EVENING...BUT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AOA
10KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...JACOBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-102330-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
341 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014 /241 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HAY SPRINGS...TO AINSWORTH...TO
ONEILL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HAY SPRINGS...TO AINSWORTH...TO
ONEILL.

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

CLB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
636 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             1 W NORTH PLATTE        41.13N 100.79W
07/09/2014  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

            BUFFALO BILL AND A-STREET

&&

SPRINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             NORTH PLATTE            41.13N 100.77W
07/09/2014  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DOWNTOWN

&&

SPRINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             3 S NORTH PLATTE        41.09N 100.77W
07/09/2014  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
648 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             4 S NORTH PLATTE        41.08N 100.77W
07/09/2014  M2.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HAIL WAS DESCRIBED AS BROCCOLI FLORETS IN SIZE.

&&

SJACOBS