Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS North Platte, NE

088 
WWUS53 KLBF 190021
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
721 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

NEC101-135-190045-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-140619T0045Z/
KEITH NE-PERKINS NE-
621 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
PERKINS AND SOUTHEASTERN KEITH COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

AT 620 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MADRID...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN PERKINS AND SOUTHEASTERN KEITH COUNTIES.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 129 AND 143.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 69 AND 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4086 10175 4115 10168 4109 10127 4101 10126
      4086 10161
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 186DEG 5KT 4098 10161

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

SPRINGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DEAL WITH STORM
CHANCES TONIGHT.

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS SEEN FROM
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
LED THE LOCAL AREA TO BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH NUMEROUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR EASTERN
BROWN AND WESTERN HOLT COUNTIES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING UP OVER
NORTHERN HOLT AND BOYD COUNTY THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE COLD FRONT WENT SOUTH AND WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KBBW AND
KORD THROUGH KHDE AND TO A POINT WEST OF KHLC. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN SEEN VERY WELL ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AND BY 20Z...STORMS HAD
BEGUN DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. ALSO...AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THE SURFACE LOW WHERE STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW HAD LED TO ALMOST CONTINUOUS STORMS THROUGH THE DAY.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAY SEE STORMS DEVELOP VERY NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS PEAK HEATING ALLOWS THE CAP TO BREAK AND
CONVECTION TO FIRE. WITH THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY BEING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THINK CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF IN THAT VICINITY UNTIL
THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP THIS EVENING. AT THAT POINT...THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS IS INDICATING THERE WILL
BE CONVERGENCE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THESE VICINITIES WILL PICK UP AFTER 00Z.

THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT.
SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF EXTREME SB CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 5-6K J/KG...AND STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR IN THESE AREAS IS
DECENT SO WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO GET ROTATING STORMS IN THESE
AREAS...AND PERHAPS TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO TO HELP STORMS FIRE THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THAT WILL
BE FED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS
SHOULD BRING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE MOISTURE FEED WILL
BE STRONGEST AT THIS POINT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST COULD SEE THE
STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

THEN FOR THURSDAY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND PASSING ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS NOT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IF THE
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MOISTURE FIELD WELL...THERE MAY BE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY DESPITE
LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEING A GOOD 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS
BEING OBSERVED IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...BELIEVE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFS WARMER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND NOT AS COOL NEXT WEEK. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EAST AND SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW. WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE RETAINED SCHC POPS. WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY.
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEKEND WITH MID TO UPPER 80S. SUNDAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE
WITH GOOD MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AS SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN PUSHING A MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA. MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STRONG COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S
FOR LOWS AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KODX AT 17Z WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO AROUND KHLC THEN TO KLAA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS PULLED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW KEEPING IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL GET SCT TO BKN CUMULUS AROUND 3K
FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON HOW LONG THE DETERIORATED
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT EACH PARTICULAR TERMINAL...BUT FELT IT
DESERVED MORE THAN A TEMPO GROUPING. DIDN/T INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE WINDS OR HAIL...ALTHOUGH THAT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BEHIND THE STORMS COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
406 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-192115-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
406 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 /306 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS ALONG
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...LOCATIONS
THAT COULD SEE ACTIVITY WOULD BE MAINLY OVER KEYA
PAHA...BOYD...AND NORTHERN HOLT COUNTIES...THEN SOUTHWARD IN AREAS
EAST OF A LINE FROM STUART THROUGH ANSELMO AND CURTIS. THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A LINE AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE GREATER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

BROOKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

NEZ010-190000-
HOLT NE-
615 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HOLT COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

AT 610 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF EMMET...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
ONEILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ONEILL...
  EMMET...
  OPPORTUNITY...
  MIDWAY...
  SCOTTVILLE...
  REDBIRD STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
  DORSEY...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 279 AND 313.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPRINGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
639 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

NEZ057>059-190030-
KEITH NE-LINCOLN NE-PERKINS NE-
539 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PERKINS...WESTERN
LINCOLN AND EASTERN KEITH COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT/730 PM CDT/...

AT 538 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF MADRID...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF GRANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ROSCOE...
  PAXTON...
  KEYSTONE...
  SARBEN...
  BROGANVILLE...
  NEVENS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 130 AND 154.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 69 AND 73.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPRINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
650 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             ATKINSON                42.53N 98.98W
06/18/2014  M0.88 INCH       HOLT               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SNIVELY