River Flood Warning 2, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
650 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED
ALONG THE SRN TIER OF STATES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED
OVER NR SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD HUDSON BAY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A DECENT COLD FROPA EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...INTO CENTRAL SD...INTO
EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WERE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THE FIRST WAS
OVER NWRN SD AND A SECOND EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
INTO NWRN KS. AS OF 3 AM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 63 AT
OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPG COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHERRY COUNTY BY 00Z SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM WYOMING AND JET
STREAK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL INCREASE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE HEATING...AND SOME RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. THE
THREAT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED SOUTH OF THE FRONT...OR GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANTIOCH TO CODY. CAPES SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE...WILL REACH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS...COULD
MAKE FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM SEVERITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY NORTH
OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH SHOWERS A
THREAT LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS 4C OVER THE
NERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE LOWER 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL AND WET WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE HIGH...EASERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND DEW PTS RISE TO AROUND 50. RAIN
CHANCES EARLY IN THE MORNING ON SATURDAY...THEN SKIES WILL SEE
SOME PEAKS OF SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

SUNDAY A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE NW EARLY...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SLIDING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY
BE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...ALBEIT LIMITED DUE TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CREATING SOME MORE INSTABILITY AND
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A WARM UP TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...MAY SEE SOME WAA
SHOWERS...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND LIKELY ONLY TO SEE AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS.

REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS MORE LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME ACTIVE
PATTERN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT THEN
STALL TO THE SOUTH. SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THIS FEATURE
WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID
EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL TODAY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT. SOME CIGS MAY DROP BLO 1000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT IFR CIGS IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KTS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
449 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-071000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
449 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014 /349 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME STORMS
MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT IS WEST OF A LINE FROM NAPER TO ERICSON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

CLB