River Flood Advisory 10, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE COLD WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA THURSDAY. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT WITH A LESSER FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.  A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE WIND CHILL THREAT.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOWER AND
MID LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ANTICIPATED.  THUS SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE FORECAST MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE HI-RES...HAVE
MOST LOCATIONS SNOW FREE BY 00Z THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE LIGHT QPF IS SHOWN TO REMAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY 03Z
THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WOULD BE LIGHT HOWEVER...WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED. THE RAPID DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND GIVEN THE FRESH
SNOWPACK /UPWARDS OF 6+ INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH/...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SUB
0F READINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF MINUS 10F OR COLDER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 20 FROM
VALENTINE THROUGH WESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.  THE OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE NEWEST
GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES MINUS 8F FOR KVTN...MINUS 3F AT KLBF AND
MINUS 10F AT RUSHVILLE.  DIDN/T WANT TO FULLY DROP THE LOW FORECAST
TO IT/S POTENTIAL AS THE WIND REMAINS AT 10KTS OR SO OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT WIND FORECAST OVERNIGHT WOULD ALLOW FOR
DANGEROUSLY LOW APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH MINUS 20F OR COLDER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND IN FAVORED RIVER BASINS /N & S
PLATTE/.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FROM 03-15Z SUNDAY FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.  NOTE HOWEVER THAT
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WC CRITERIA DOES NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF
AN ADVISORY ACROSS KEITH OR LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT LOCALIZED -20F OR
COLDER MAY BE NOTED AT OR AROUND KLBF OR KOGA...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW LATE SUNDAY...PULLING
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST PLACES...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS FOR OUR FAR
NORTHWEST.  LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND THE
FRONT...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED.  A GREATER
IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE
FORECAST.  THIS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
IMPACT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL SNOW TODAY /MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20/.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY NIGHT DECREASE
SOMEWHAT BUT FULL DECOUPLING APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE MODELS SHOW
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND H850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING ABOUT 6C
OVERNIGHT. H850MB WINDS CONTINUE STRONG AND ARE 45KT AT 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FCST AREA AND THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN A MIXED
LAYER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH LEE SIDE CONVERGENCE AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS. THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20F.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL DRIFTS EAST A BIT MONDAY FOR HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OPPORTUNITY DEVELOPS
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BIAS CORRECTED GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
DOUBLE DIGIT SUBZERO LOWS BUT A THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS ALASKA THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE ENCROACHING ON THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY LIMIT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO -10F
ACROSS THE NORTH. LIGHT WEST WINDS...LESS THAN 10 MPH...WOULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS LESS THAN -20F.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLURRIES.
THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TUESDAY WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WHEN COMBINED WITH MODEST WEST
DOWNSLOPING WINDS THE MODELS SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECM
WERE WARMER BUT THIS MIGHT NOT VERIFY DEPENDING ON THE SNOW COVER
UPSTREAM ACROSS COLORADO...WYOMING AND THE PANHANDLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE ECM CONTINUES TO DELAY THE
RELAXATION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS.
RIDGING STILL EXTENDS INTO EASTERN SIBERIA FRIDAY MORNING BUT SPLIT
FLOW HAS FORMED ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE MODELS SHOW WEAK ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SECOND ARCTIC HIGH THURSDAY.
THE ECM IS FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS HIGH
AND ACTUALLY SHOWS COLD AIR RECYCLING NORTH FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE 30S AND 40S WOULD BE 10 DEGREES COLDER IF THE ECM
VERIFIES. ALL SOLNS SHOW A WARM UP IN THE 30S AND 40S SATURDAY. THE
MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT BOTH THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS SHOULD SEE
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE
CAVEAT IS THAT GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALLOW FOR BLSN WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURED. CURRENTLY THE KVTN AIRPORT
HAS RECORDED SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND WITH THE ANTICIPATED GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON...VISIBILITY MAY STILL FALL
BELOW 1SM AFTER THE SNOW HAS ENDED. AT KLBF...AN INCH OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST...THUS AFTER THE SNOWFALL ENDS...FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY CHANGE WITH EACH BAND OF SNOW AS IT PASSES OVER AREA
TERMINALS...SHORT TERM UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM BLSN IS LOW ATTM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>010-094.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 9
AM CST /8 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS

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