Special Marine Warning 252, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1046 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A REVIEW OF MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THE VISIBLE CHANNEL OF
GOES-EAST INDICATES NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS POPULATE THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS...TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AREA OF ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
DEEP TROPICAL WAVE/CYCLONIC VORTICITY ZONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON FLORIDA KEYS
WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...
AS IT MOVES FARTHER WESTWARD OVER THE GULF BASIN. BUT FOR NOW...
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER HAS PERSISTED...AT LEAST THROUGH MOST
LOWER KEYS COMMUNITIES.

WE HAVE SPLIT ZONE GROUPING TO INDICATE HIGHER SKY COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT EAST CAPE SABLE-SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM KEY WEST AND
VICINITY TO THE CUDJOE-BIG PINE KEY AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE NORTH-SOUND MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY COULD SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD OVER MARATHON/BOOT
KEY HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT
IT REMAINS JUST WEST...GIVEN TRENDS OF DEVELOPING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW EVIDENT IN UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES.

BOTH DIGITAL AND DERIVED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON - WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT EAST CAPE SABLE
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS MORNING HAVE PRODUCED WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A MORE UNIFORM EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
DEVELOPING...RANGING FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS OVER NORTHERN ZONES TO NEAR
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KEY WEST TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CAUSING BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS AT KEY WEST WILL BE SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS
WHILE THE SHOWERS PERSIST...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1107 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPDATED THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-151000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
1107 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD AT SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE AND EAST CAPE SABLE. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD
WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. A
SECONDARY HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH TO ISOLATED BY THIS EVENING...
WITH THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD BEING LIGHTNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD
WILL BE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KASPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
853 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 14 NW KEY WEST          24.72N 81.92W
09/14/2014  M48 MPH          GMZ033             FL   MESONET

            42 KNOT GUST MEASURED AT SMITH SHOAL WEATHERFLOW STATION.
            WIND WAS FROM SW AT 222 DEGREES.

&&

EVICKERY