Coastal Flood Statement 3, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
236 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...UNDULATING AND FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND TODAY
IS NO EXCEPTION. THE ENHANCED GRADIENT IS THE RESULT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE FL/GA BORDER...SUPPORTING
AN ELONGATED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS SET TO CHANGE AS
HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PER THE
RAOB ANALYSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A CONTINENTAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE
GRADIENT...APPARENT ON AVAILABLE MIMIC TPW LOOPS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CREPT INTO THE UPPER 80S...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
STATUS QUO TONIGHT...FRESH EAST TO NORTHEAST BREEZES...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL GET
SHOVED EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...OPENING UP OUR MEAN FLOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A MORE TROPICAL...LESS INHIBITED ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE CHANGES. THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING LOW
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ONCE AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FAVORED OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITHIN A NOCTURNAL REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOXING WINDS AROUND THE ROSE. CLOUD LINES MAY
PROVE TO BE FRUITFUL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONT'S MOMENTUM...NO ACTION TAKEN. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLIES
SEEM LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A MEAGER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS REGIME NORMALLY OPENS UP
CHANCES FOR MAINLAND CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SQUELCHED ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
ENSEMBLE MOS OUTPUT CLOSES OUT THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TURNING EAST-NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 12/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. MOIST EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM ABOUT 090/15KT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY MOVE WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF MTH OR EYW THIS AFTERNOON...AND A BRIEF...SUB-VFR IMPACT
FROM SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON  81  89  81  89 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR FLZ078-077-076.
GM...NONE. &&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
600 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-121000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
600 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TODAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD
WILL BE LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WILL BE
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

APA