Special Marine Warning 13, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TS BERTHA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CABO ROJO LATE TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUE. TUTT
EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE MID WEEK ON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE WNW AROUND 22 MPH NEXT
12 HRS PASSING NEAR CABO ROJO LATE TODAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A 3-6
HR PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVR PR WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVR ERN PR. OVR THE WRN
HALF OF PR RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE. GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN STRONG CONVECTION.

BERTHA MOVES QUICKLY NW OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND WINDS
DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HI-RES WRF NMM
SHOWS NOTHING AFTER 03Z SUN.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH QUICKLY ON SUN UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OVERALL...VERY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE LIKELY IN HEAVY
CONVECTION. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY NOON AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN HEAVY CONVECTION. WINDS
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z
SUN EVERYWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT EXPECTED AS
BERTHA TRACKS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING
9-11 FT AS SEEN ON BUOY 42060 SE OF ST. CROIX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  78  88  81 / 100  70   0  20
STT  80  79  89  81 / 100  70   0  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

COASTAL WATERS...
&&

64/64

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