Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
608 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
275 TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA IN EXTREME
EASTERN KY. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE WATCH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS MOVE THROUGH AND
STABILIZID THE ATMOSPHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

SENT AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO
INCORPORATE A DROP WITH ONSET OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

CONVECTIVE LINE WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFYING TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE SUPERCELL AHEAD OF
IT ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODIFYING NAM
SOUNDINGS FOR OBSERVED SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG. MODEST SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT...MOSTLY SPEED...WITH ABOUT 60 KTS
AT 500 MB. THIS IS GIVING LARGELY A SEVERE WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LINE. HOWEVER...ANY CIRCULATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE
CELLS...COULD ALSO YIELD LARGE HAIL. THE CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS
EAST ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ONCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH AND DIMINISHES...THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE
DETAILS OF PRECIP TIMING TOO WELL RECENTLY. HAVE USED A GENERAL
DIURNAL TREND...AND STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS MAV MOS POP VALUES FOR
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE INFLATED VALUES OF THE NAM
MET MOS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS IN THE
EXTENDED. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAD SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS AND LARGER DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH SAID WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A FAST MOVING VIGOROUS TROUGH
RACING EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON TAP OFF
AND ON THROUGH NIGHT AS AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVE REPEATEDLY
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS COMING IN EACH DAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT TAF ISSUANCE...WITH SOME LOW VFR CEILINGS
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP AS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW INTO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING
LOCALIZED IFR. DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES OF IFR AT ANY GIVEN
POINT/TIME...JUST -SHRA AND VCTS WITH VFR WAS USED IN TAFS. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...LEAVING MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>109-111-112-
114>117-111100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-ELLIOTT-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-LEE-BREATHITT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCE OF DAMAGING WIND OR
HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KYZ088-110-113-118>120-111100-
HARLAN-FLOYD-KNOTT-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARLAN...PRESTONSBURG...HINDMAN...
WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCE OF DAMAGING WIND OR
HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAY/HAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
559 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

KYZ058-059-068-069-102230-
POWELL-ESTILL-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-
559 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 630
PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING...

   NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...
   WESTERN POWELL...
   NORTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE AND
   ESTILL.

AT 559 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARRIS FERRY TO HUMMEL...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF BEREA TO MOUNT
VERNON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...SHIRLEY AROUND
605 PM EDT...SANDGAP AROUND 610 PM EDT...WINSTON AROUND 615 PM EDT...
WITT AROUND 620 PM EDT...WESTBEND AROUND 625 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

JMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
606 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST VOX                     36.99N 84.20W
06/10/2014  M65 MPH          LAUREL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
607 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KEAVY                   37.00N 84.17W
06/10/2014                   LAUREL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
609 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             IRVINE                  37.70N 83.97W
06/10/2014  E0.25 INCH       ESTILL             KY   911 CALL CENTER

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
611 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     VOX                     36.99N 84.20W
06/10/2014  M65.00 MPH       LAUREL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

JCARICO

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