Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
329 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SENDING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AFTER THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING OVER
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT TO SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN POTENTIALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT. THEN...SHOWERS
AND STORM WILL REENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER. WITH TREES YET TO LEAF OUT
HERE LOCALLY (AND THUS NOT ABSORBING THE AMOUNT OF GROUNDWATER THEY
WOULD WHEN FULLY LEAFED) AND PWATS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...RUNOFF FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND POOR DRAINING URBAN AREAS.

THE OTHER CONCERN REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE IS APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THINK THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL
BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
TOMORROW/S THREAT AGAIN REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
BUILD BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT PROJECTIONS PUT THE
FRONT THROUGH HERE AROUND MIDDAY...SO THAT WOULD SUPPORT A LESSER
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAN SHOULD THE FRONT COME THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH SO A WIND HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE PERIOD WILL END QUIETLY AS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...WITH SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN OUR WESTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING A RELATIVELY
NICE...BUT COOLER WEEKEND. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO THE
60S BY SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION LATE SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PLACE EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG TROUGHING SETTLING INTO THE REGION. THIS
TROUGHING IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING
COOLER AND PERHAPS UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. THUS...AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO PULL OUT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS COLD AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH IS
NOT COLD ENOUGH. WARMER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TIMING THE INITIAL LINE INTO THE TAF SITES
IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
IMPACTS AFTER THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH
DRIER. WILL LEAN ON THE HRRR MODEL AS IT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING MUCH
BETTER LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR DATA. THIS WILL YIELD A PROLONGED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A VCTS/CB
MENTION BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH THE INITIAL LINE AND THEN AGAIN
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SURFACE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...ABE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-042000-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGEST STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ABE

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