Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
451 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST. TAIL END OF FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE MID WEST IS SHIFTING EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE THIS BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24
HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THEREAFTER IT SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND THE
OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS. ATTM IT APPEARS AT LEAST
PART OF OUR AREA WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY
RIDING OVER AND DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP AND HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO CATCH UP WITH REALITY. GFS HAS PERFORMED DECENTLY
THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS THOUGH AND LEANED TOWARDS ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX WEAKENED AS EXPECTED. BUT CONVECTION HAS
REFIRED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD POOL IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
RAMPED POPS UP FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME
FOR CONVECTION ENTERING FROM THE WEST AND ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. CONSEQUENTLY A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST UNTIL 11 PM. WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...LEFT AT LEAST A
CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BOUNDARY SHOULD BE JUST
TO OUR EAST BY TOMORROW...SO LEFT HIGHEST POPS IN OUR EAST...LOWER TO
OUR WEST. ALSO THURSDAYS TEMP GRADIENT SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO PRECIP COOLED AIR AND INCREASED
CLOUDINESS IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED...ESPECIALLY WITH
TEMPS... AS MODELS INDICATE THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE JUST
TO OUR WEST NOW WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINING TO OUR WEST AS
WELL. SO... TEMPERATURES WERE REDUCED A BIT...BUT IT IS STILL GOING
TO BE WARM AND VERY MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. THIS JUICY AIR MASS ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE) WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT PUTTING US IN THE
PRIME LOCATION FOR MCS ACTIVITY IN ADDITION TO THE NORMAL DIURNAL
BASED ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH SO POPS WILL
DECREASE A BIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

VERY JUICY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW SC FIELD
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WITHIN THE MVFR
THRESHOLDS. WITH MIXING AND INCREASED HEATING...CLOUD BASE OF CU/SC
FIELD SHOULD RISE JUST A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY HOW UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX OVER IL/IN
WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL FALL
APART BEFORE ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT ALONG A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL TRANSIT OUR AREA. FOLLOWED THIS TRAIN OF
THOUGHT PRETTY CLOSELY FOR THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS
HITTING FOG ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY HARD TONIGHT. BUT WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA TENDENCY WAS TO GO MORE
OPTIMISTIC. VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z...AND BE THE CATALYST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED RENEWED
CONVECTIVE THREAT. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME STATIONARY TO OUR EAST AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
437 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

KYZ050-051-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-108-111-112-114>117-
211100-
MONTGOMERY-BATH-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-
LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-WOLFE-LEE-BREATHITT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...IRVINE...
STANTON...FRENCHBURG...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN
437 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL AND DAMAGE FROM WINDS.

KYZ044-052-104-106-107-109-110-113-118>120-211100-
FLEMING-ROWAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-KNOTT-LETCHER-
MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOREHEAD...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...HINDMAN...
WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
437 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
424 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

KYZ069-080-116-202100-
LAUREL-JACKSON-CLAY-
424 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 500
PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...
   WESTERN CLAY AND
   NORTHEASTERN LAUREL.

AT 423 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREEN HILL...
OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF MCKEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...ROYRADER AROUND
430 PM EDT...DATHA AROUND 435 PM EDT...BENGE AROUND 440 PM EDT...
FOGERTOWN AROUND 445 PM EDT...BURNING SPRINGS AROUND 450 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

PELTON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
456 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

KYZ068-079-202145-
PULASKI-ROCKCASTLE-
456 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 545
PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTHERN PULASKI AND
   SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE.

AT 455 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF EUBANK...OR 21 MILES WEST OF MOUNT VERNON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

KYZ058-069-111-114-202145-
ESTILL-JACKSON-OWSLEY-LEE-
458 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...
   OWSLEY...
   SOUTHERN LEE AND
   SOUTH CENTRAL ESTILL.

AT 458 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR OLD
ORCHARD...OR 9 MILES WEST OF BEATTYVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...YELLOW ROCK
AROUND 505 PM EDT...BANFORD AROUND 510 PM EDT...DELVINTA AROUND 515
PM EDT...CORGLETON AROUND 520 PM EDT...PEBWORTH AROUND 525 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE IN THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

PELTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
504 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E PINEVILLE           36.76N 83.68W
08/20/2014                   BELL               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON TOP OF TRAILER AT BROWNING TRAILER PARK LOOP
            ON HWY 119

&&

JVOGTMIL