Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Jackson, KY

404 
WWUS83 KJKL 142255
RFWJKL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
655 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

KYZ107-110-113-118>120-150000-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140314T2300Z/
JOHNSON-FLOYD-KNOTT-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
655 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STARTING TO MODERATE AND WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED...WITH BOTH NO LONGER MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VALUES.
THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT.

$$

JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO INCREASE...AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN WARMING A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THIS...INCLUDING RAISING THE MAX TEMP FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

BASED ON FORECAST WINDS...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN ADGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS ARE PRETTY
MUCH A SURE THING...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LOW THE
HUMIDITY WILL GET. THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE DEW POINTS WILL RESPOND. DECIDED ON CANCELING THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH BECAUSE THE RELATIVE HUMIDIFIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE THE
CRITICAL 25 PERCENT THRESHOLD. EVEN THOUGH THEY DO NOT MEET THIS
THRESHOLD THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE QUITE HIGH TODAY. THE WINDS COULD
CAUSE A RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT DEVELOP. ALL BURNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE PUT OFF FOR ANOTHER DAY AS STRONG
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF CARRYING EMBERS A LONG WAY FROM WHERE THE FIRE
IS ACTUALLY BURNING AND THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAKES ITS LIKELY
FOR WIND BLOWN EMBERS TO START NEW FIRES. CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW...HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOR
TEMPERATURES...JUST BLENDED THE OLD FORECAST TOWARD THE NEW MODEL
BLEND. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP THE VALLEYS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INDICATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

ANOTHER DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WINTER STORM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
WORK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
TAKES SHAPE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH OF
KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE AROUND TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH AROUND 40 IN THE
NORTH TO 50S IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY
EVENING...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL COME INTO QUESTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLUMN COOLS.  A BIT OF A WARM NOSE IS
PRESENT TO SUPPORT SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE WE SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE COMES INTO QUESTION. IT APPEARS THE
BEST SHOT AT THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF KENTUCKY...AND FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS IS BASICALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. BY THE TIME WE SEE THE CHANGEOVER
OCCUR...PRECIPITATION MAY ALREADY BE STARTING TO WIND DOWN...SO THIS
WILL SAVE US FROM ANY LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET...SNOW...OR ICE.
ALSO...WITH THE MILDER DAYS...GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM TO
PROVIDE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON ROADS. HOWEVER...IF IT CAN COME DOWN
HEAVY ENOUGH WE COULD SEE A WINDOW OF HIGHER IMPACTS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...THE COLD AIR
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND WE SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S. A SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

STRONG RIDGING WILL FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING A MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY. OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM AND
EXACTLY WHERE IT TRACKS AND IF AND WHEN IT WILL CUT OFF ALOFT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SEND A COLD FRONT OUR DIRECTION SOMETIME LATE
NEXT WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT BEST. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SOME LOW POPS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER BLOW TO TEMPERATURES AS WE RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS IN THE WAKE OF ANY COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

PREDOMINANTLY VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOCALIZED MVFR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
CEILINGS BREAK UP BY MID DAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE WEST OF THE FOOTHILLS...WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058-059-068-069-079-083.

&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
410 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
410 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE WINDS COULD CAUSE
A RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT DEVELOP. ALL BURNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE PUT OFF FOR ANOTHER DAY AS STRONG
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF CARRYING EMBERS A LONG WAY FROM WHERE THE FIRE
IS ACTUALLY BURNING AND THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAKES ITS LIKELY
FOR WIND BLOWN EMBERS TO START NEW FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SNOW..SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JJ