Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Jackson, KY

618 
WGUS53 KJKL 150506
FFWJKL
KYC051-121-125-147-199-235-151000-
/O.EXT.KJKL.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140715T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
106 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  NORTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHERN LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 600 AM EDT

* AT 104 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING BACK INTO 
  THE WARNING AREA. BASED ON THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED    
  EARLIER IN THE EVENING...ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS SHOULD RESULT IN 
  RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  MANCHESTER...ADD...BALDROCK...BARK CAMP...BLACKWATER...BLUEHOLE...
  BOHO...BOTTO...BUSH...CANE CREEK...COTTONGIN...DORTHAE...
  FARISTON...FLETCHER...GARRARD...GIBBS...GOOSE ROCK...GROVE...
  HAVEN...HERRON...HIGHTOP...HIMA...HOLLY BAY REC. AREA...HOOKER...
  HORSE CREEK JUNCTION...HOUSE...HUXLEY...JONSEE...KEAVY AND
  KNOXFORK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
JACKSON KY.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 8392 3717 8370 3705 8363 3687 8442
      3695 8457

$$

JMW

934 
WGUS73 KJKL 150855
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
455 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

KYC051-121-125-147-199-235-150910-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140715T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KNOX KY-MCCREARY KY-PULASKI KY-WHITLEY KY-CLAY KY-LAUREL KY-
455 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LAUREL...
CENTRAL CLAY...NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY...SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...
NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY AND NORTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

CALLS TO COUNTY DISPATCHES INDICATE THAT EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY 
RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN 
HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED 
AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD 
THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3714 8392 3717 8370 3705 8363 3687 8442
      3695 8457

$$

PELTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
831 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AS A
WAVE NEARS US FROM THE NW...AND ANOTHER WAVE HAS DEVELOPED TO OUR SW
AND MOVED INTO THE REGION. THE MERGER OF THESE TWO SYSTEM HAS CREATED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UPDATED POPS AND WX
ACCORDINGLY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HI-RES MODEL
TRENDS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...THOUGH AT THIS POINT THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN WORKED OVER...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

UPDATED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...AS
WELL AS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING UPSTREAM AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. TRIED TO
KEEP A BIT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE LINE AFFECTING OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT...INSTEAD OF WASHING IT OUT COMPLETELY. ALSO LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS JUST
TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS REFLECTING THE ONGOING CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ABLE TO KICK OFF SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY NEAR AND WEST OF I 75. IT STARTED WEAKENING AS
IT MOVED INTO THE AREA THAT HAD RAIN LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. THE WEAKENED LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
IS STILL CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE MOVING INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THIS AREA DID
NOT HAVE STORMS THIS MORNING...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE TO
SEE IF ANY OF THE STORMS GET STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW EXPECT THIS THREAT TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
AND COOL FORECAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG THE QUEBEC ONTARIO BORDER WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE CHANCE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS BRINGS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST...AS IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PARTICULAR TAF SITE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...AS
WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS AND RESULTING IMPACTS FOR LOWERING
VIS AND CIGS. THINK THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF VFR AND MVFR
CIGS...WITH VIS BEING THE MAIN CHANGING VARIABLE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT KSME AND KSJS. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN
IMPROVING...WITH VFR SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING AND RAIN COMING TO AN END.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
917 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-160430-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
917 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...
WITH HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE...
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...OR FLOODING OVERNIGHT.

JMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
848 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIVINGSTON              37.30N 84.22W
07/14/2014                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN LIVINGSTON...INCLUDING ONE THAT
            FELL ON A HOME. ESTIMATED TIME BASED ON REPORT AND WHEN
            SPOTTER SAID IT OCCURED.

&&

JMWIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
916 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

KYZ068-079-080-084>086-150200-
MCCREARY-PULASKI-ROCKCASTLE-WHITLEY-LAUREL-KNOX-
916 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING...

   NORTHWESTERN KNOX...
   NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY...
   PULASKI...
   SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKCASTLE...
   NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY AND
   SOUTHWESTERN LAUREL.

AT 915 PM EDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED NEAR ELIHU...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOMERSET...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...SHOPVILLE
AROUND 920 PM EDT...DYKES AROUND 925 PM EDT...MOUNT VICTORY AROUND
930 PM EDT...HUXLEY AROUND 935 PM EDT...AND ROCKCASTLE SPRINGS
AROUND 940 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
928 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIVINGSTON              37.30N 84.22W
07/14/2014                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN LIVINGSTON...INCLUDING ONE THAT
            FELL ON A HOME. ESTIMATED EVENT TIME FROM RADAR.

&&

JMWIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
933 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LILY                    37.02N 84.08W
07/14/2014  M1.25 INCH       LAUREL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.25 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 40 MINUTES.

&&

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
946 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WHITESBURG              37.12N 82.83W
07/14/2014  M2.02 INCH       LETCHER            KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SINCE MORNING COOP REPORT.

&&

JMWIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
946 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

KYZ083-084-150230-
MCCREARY-WAYNE-
946 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
1030 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING...

   WESTERN MCCREARY AND
   WAYNE.

AT 946 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HIDALGO...OR 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTICELLO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...COOPER AROUND
955 PM EDT...OIL VALLEY AROUND 1000 PM EDT...BARRIER AROUND 1005 PM
EDT...COOPERSVILLE AROUND 1010 PM EDT...AND KIDDS CROSSING AROUND
1015 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF