Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Jackson, KY

705 
WGUS73 KJKL 042030
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

KYC153-237-042042-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140905T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MAGOFFIN KY-WOLFE KY-
430 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WOLFE
AND WEST CENTRAL MAGOFFIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3742 8427 3755 8417 3761 8390 3758 8378
      3761 8352 3767 8328 3761 8327 3747 8376
      3731 8409 3733 8413 3731 8414 3727 8433

$$

KYC025-065-109-129-189-203-050000-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140905T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JACKSON KY-OWSLEY KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-LEE KY-BREATHITT KY-ESTILL KY-
430 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ESTILL...
NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT...SOUTHERN LEE...EASTERN ROCKCASTLE...
NORTHWESTERN OWSLEY AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT FLASH
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 587 AND 399
NEAR IDA MAY IN LEE COUNTY. RAINFALL IS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA...BUT RUNOFF FROM EARLIER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 8427 3755 8417 3761 8390 3758 8378
      3761 8352 3767 8328 3761 8327 3747 8376
      3731 8409 3733 8413 3731 8414 3727 8433

$$

ABE

477 
WGUS73 KJKL 042126
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
526 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

KYC025-065-109-129-189-203-042141-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140905T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JACKSON KY-OWSLEY KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-LEE KY-BREATHITT KY-ESTILL KY-
526 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ESTILL...NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT...SOUTHERN LEE...EASTERN
ROCKCASTLE...NORTHWESTERN OWSLEY AND JACKSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3742 8427 3755 8417 3761 8390 3758 8378
      3761 8352 3767 8328 3761 8327 3747 8376
      3731 8409 3733 8413 3731 8414 3727 8433

$$

JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
149 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME. POPS WERE RAISED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MOSTLY INTO THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY...WITH ISOLATED POPS INTRODUCED ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE RETURN NORTH HAS BROUGHT A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW OF 1.8 INCHES OR MORE INTO THE KY/TN/VA TRI
STATE AREA...THOUGH PW IS GENERALLY 1.5 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND IF THEY PERSIST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SO
FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PEAK IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN WANE TOWARD SUNSET...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION
BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
ALSO SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. A FRESH ZFP WAS ALSO ISSUED TO GET RID OF MORNING FOG WORDING
AS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT VALLEY FOG
CONTINUES TO LIFT. THE FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A STRATUS DECK IN SOME
RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS AND NEAR A FEW AREA LAKES...THIS ALSO IS
GRADUALLY ERODING AWAY.

RATHER LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE
AREA BELOW 500 MB. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR WEAKNESS
BETWEEN RIDGING CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE MS VALLEY
REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT RATHER STRONG SFC HEATING
AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
PARTS OF THE REGION FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION STILL APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST NEAR THE VA BORDER WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS...BUT WITH NO
SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND A MOIST AIR MASS
HAVE ALLOWED TYPICAL SEASONAL VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING...BUT GO THROUGH ITS
CYCLE AGAIN TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MADE IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
NOT GET ANY FURTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CARRY MOISTURE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST...ENSURING ALL AREAS ARE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HUMIDITY MAY FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY WILL BE
NEAR THE VA BORDER...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST. FURTHER
NW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING MORE SHALLOW...WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT BEING LESS SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION IN THE
ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT. IN ADDITION...WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS IN
OUR NW COUNTIES WILL ALSO MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO GET DEEP
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND LITTLE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...HELPING
TO LIMIT COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

BIG WEATHER CHANGE STILL ANTICIPATED THIS COMING WEEKEND AS MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS THAT MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT A TAD...WHICH COULD NOW IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. STARTING OFF THE PERIOD...DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...LEAVING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXPECTED COLD FRONT WILL MARCH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY AND SWING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH
THE MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT...LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION COULD
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING LATE
IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO THUNDER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH...BUT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST. THIS COULD SET UP A BIT WETTER AND CERTAINLY CLOUDIER
SUNDAY FOR THOSE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS...HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ARE EXPECTED.

WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...SUPPORTING
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS WEAK...AND FLOW
ON MONDAY MAY BE FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...LEADING TO
DOWNSLOPING...WHICH COULD SQUASH ANYTHING FROM FORMING. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH A 20 POP TO COVER THE SMALL CHANCE. MODELS START
DIVERGING QUITE A BIT AND HAVE STARTING TO FLIP FLOP ON VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS AS WE HEAD TOWARDS TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...OPTING TO KEEP
EACH DAYTIME PERIOD WITH LOW POPS WITH LOWER COVERAGE AT NIGHT UNTIL
WE SEE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND A BIT AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE EXTREME WARMTH SHOULD STAY AWAY FOR A LITTLE WHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR WILL WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY STATIONS TO EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 19Z ARE LOZ AND SME. HOWEVER...VCTS WAS CARRIED AT JKL AND
SJS FOR THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO DEPART AND WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY SUNSET. FOG WILL DEVELOP
IN VALLEYS...GENERALLY AFTER 5Z AND PROBABLY AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z. WITH RAIN HAVING FALLEN AND THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING
MOIST...THIS FOG MAY REDUCE VIS BELOW AIRPORT MINS AT ALL SITES FOR
A TIME TOWARD DAWN. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 14Z...WITH
VFR FROM THEN UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-051115-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1234 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HAL/JP