Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...

...WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED OUR WRN BOUNDARY AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP RAPIDLY AS DRIER AIR POURS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A COUPLE LINES OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING SEWD OVER THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL USHER IN
MUCH COOLER AIR AND TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EARLY
WED MORNING. HAVE ADDED A WIND CHILL ADV TO THE SUITE OF
HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...

WED...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST
PROVIDING A COLD AND DRY NW FLOW. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S IN SE GA AND
TO GET TO 50 ACROSS NE FL. BREEZY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO LIGHTER WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN.

WED NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...STAGE SET FOR
A HARD FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. HAVE POSTED A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL
OF SE GA AND FOR MUCH OF INLAND NE FL...EXCLUDING ST JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTIES. HAVE GONE WITH A FREEZE WATCH THERE. MAIN
ISSUE IS THAT WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST 9 HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OF THE INLAND

THU...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER FL AS A REINFORCING AND DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S
OVER SE GA TO NEAR 60 OVER NE FL UNDER WNW FLOW.

THU NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS
NE FL. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SE GA WITH
FREEZE ACROSS INLAND NE FL. WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE FL AS WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 10 MPH.

FRI...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 50 OVER SE GA WITH BREEZY
NNE WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WNW OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S OVER
INLAND NE FL AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS SOME PASSING CLOUDS AND
A LOW 20% CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE. FRI NIGHT TEMPS
WILL COOL TO NEAR 30 OVER SE GA TO NEAR FREEZING OVER INLAND NE FL...
WITH UPPER 30S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

SAT-TUE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE DRY TROUGHS
CONTINUE TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS REGIME
WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPS UNDER
WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILS. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30
KTS...THEN DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS
OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING OFFSHORE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WED AM. WILL HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR
SHORE. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING
WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE BELOW SCA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LIGHTER
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THRU WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WED-SAT WITH MIN RH'S IN THE
MID 20S FOR NE FL AND UPPER TEENS INLAND SE GA. THE DRIEST DAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WED/THURS...THEN ONSHORE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
NEAR THE COAST ON FRI. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 15 MPH...BUT FUEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ELEVATED FOR OUR
REGION AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE RED FLAG HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  28  48  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  32  46  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  29  48  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  31  47  31  56 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  29  50  27  59 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  31  51  28  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR FLAGLER-ST JOHNS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

TRABERT/PETERSON/GUILLET

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