Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ERUPTING OVER OUR REGION IN A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN GA TONIGHT. DEEP SWLY OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS BETWEEN 2 AND 2.4 INCHES
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRS/STORMS ALL NIGHT. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SOME TRAINING OF CELLS MAY OCCUR CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA. STORMS ARE MOVING EAST
AROUND 20 MPH AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE NOT SITTING IN ONE SPOT
FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. RAINFALL AMTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...
THE MUCH DISCUSSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
PUSHING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ADVECTING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM APALACHEE BAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. LIKE THE NAM12 SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF
FIELDS WITH A 1 TO 2 INCH....GENERAL...CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE OF COURSE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS THAT TRAIN ECHO OVER THE OCALA
AREA. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE MORE
MODEST WITH .25 TO .5 INCHES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MUCH DRIER WITH SOME SEABREEZE
FRONT CONVERGENCE OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

WEEKEND...THE FORECAST AREA WINDS UP IN A SQUEEZE PLAY WITH THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GULF AND BRING
MOISTURE IN WITH IT FROM THE WEST AND THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE
PUSHING NORTHWARD WITH SOME GULF AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE ADVECTING
OVER US. LOOKS LIKE A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND BUT NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL POPS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BAD NEWS...WITH BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THE TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S...IN SOME LOCATIONS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS ARE IN VICINITY OF NE FL TERMINALS AND EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT SSI BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDS. VSBY IN STRONGEST STORMS WILL DROP TO AROUND
1SM. SCT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL SURGES CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET AND MAY NEED CAUTION HEADLINES AT TIMES BUT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MAIN MARINE HAZARD WILL BE OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS FROM THE LAND AREAS THAT MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  66  92 /  50  50  20   0
SSI  76  87  74  89 /  50  60  40  10
JAX  73  87  69  91 /  40  70  50  10
SGJ  75  85  74  88 /  60  70  60  20
GNV  73  85  69  91 /  50  60  50  20
OCF  73  84  72  91 /  50  50  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/SANDRIK/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-161000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
MPH. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
SOME STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. MARINE INTERESTS IN THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WILL NEED TO USE CAUTION DUE TO OFFSHORE MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG/HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RETURN TO NORMAL DIURNAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

GAZ133>135-151945-
APPLING-BACON-JEFF DAVIS-
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFF DAVIS...
APPLING AND BACON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 316 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF
SNIPESVILLE TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAXLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SNIPESVILLE...
DENTON...HAZLEHURST...GRAHAM...PINE GROVE AND BAXLEY THROUGH 345 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3176 8217 3154 8251 3162 8263 3167 8263
      3167 8271 3170 8275 3183 8279 3193 8265
      3193 8263 3197 8254 3195 8250 3197 8250
      3198 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 230DEG 19KT 3178 8268 3159 8245

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

FLZ040-152000-
MARION-
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
SPARR TO BURBANK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SPARR...REDDICK...
LOWELL...BURBANK...ANTHONY...CITRA...FORT MCCOY...LAKE DELANCY...SALT
SPRINGS AND ORANGE SPRINGS THROUGH 400 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2938 8224 2943 8217 2942 8214 2943 8214
      2944 8206 2950 8202 2952 8184 2949 8184
      2948 8177 2943 8177 2942 8174 2938 8174
      2937 8169 2934 8167 2932 8167 2922 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 243DEG 13KT 2938 8211 2928 8198

ENYEDI