Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING OVER THE REGION...BUT VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE RAPID REFRESH SHOWS A SMALL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION (CIN) IS MAINTAINED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS VERIFYING ON RADAR WHERE THE ONLY STORMS
HAVE BEEN ACROSS FLAGLER COUNTY AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. NOT
CONVINCED WE WON'T BREAK THE CAP AND WILL KEEP SCATTERED STORMS
MAINLY FROM 4-8 PM. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE AFTN. MOST
AREAS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S BY NOW WITH SWLY FLOW AND WHILE DRIER
AIR IS MIXING DOWN IN SOME AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 70S.

.EXTENDED...
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS
TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME KIND OF A COASTAL TROUGH/LOW OFFSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND. NAM12 IS LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH IT ON SATURDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SUBSIDENT AREA TO THE COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE
LOOKING LIKE WE WILL MOVE INTO A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS
OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH-LOW
OVER THE REGION INTO MID WEEK WITH ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING HOT FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A BIT CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL FROM
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL BE PREVAILING CONDITION ALONG WITH W TO SW FLOW. DUE TO
LOW TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL REDUCE NUMBER OF HOURS WITH
VCTS AT TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS ARE MAINLY 5-10 KTS WITH 1 FOOT SEAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SLY THIS EVENING THEN RETURN TO SW-W AFTER MIDNIGHT. BENIGN CONDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURS WITH GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND ESE SWELLS ABOUT 1 FOOT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  71  95  71 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  91  75  90  76 /  30  40  20  20
JAX  94  72  94  74 /  30  40  30  30
SGJ  92  75  91  75 /  30  40  50  50
GNV  92  72  92  71 /  30  30  40  30
OCF  92  73  93  72 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/SANDRIK/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
451 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-
149>154-162>166-260900-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
451 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BECOME STRONG
WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND COASTAL AREAS. STORM MOTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 15 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
654 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

FLZ040-252330-
MARION-
654 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 730
PM EDT...

AT 654 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES WEST OF BELLEVIEW...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
BELLEVIEW...SUMMERFIELD AND LAKE WEIR THROUGH 730 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2908 8223 2910 8201 2896 8191 2895 8192
      2895 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 341DEG 9KT 2904 8210

HESS

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