Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIAL CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT AS A WEAK IMPULSE
CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF NE
FL KEEPING MUCH OF SE GA DRY UNDER SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. WILL CAP
POPS AT HIGH END SCATTERED LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL...WITH LOW END SCATTERED ACROSS EXTREME NE FL WITH ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS SE GA. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND...WITH MID 70S COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A RATHER DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AFTN. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SMALL SCALE/SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TO GENERATE
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS FOR ALL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTN. THICKER CLOUDS AND EARLIER ONSET OF PRECIP
WILL LIKELY TEMPER HEATING QUITE A BIT...THUS AMOUNT OF TSTMS
ARE IN QUESTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL USE NUMEROUS TSTMS FOR MOST
AREAS. A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE FL...COULD BECOME
STRONG IN THE AFTN WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP,..WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...STORMS WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY OVER LAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST EARLY MORNING
AND DEEP SWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS INLAND
TOWARD THE ATLC COAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE ATLC. MODELS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURS NIGHT
AND WILL KEEP LOW END POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 80S DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
IS FASTER...SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER AL/GA ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...
THEN LIFT THE LOW INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY FRIDAY/SAT...THEN SHOWS A
RIDGE BRIDGING THE TROUGH WHICH LIFT NORTHWARD. BOTH SHOW RIDGING
OVER FL PENINSULA BY TUESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN LATEST MODEL RUNS...THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS FRI/SAT THEN A MORE SOLID EASTERLY TO SELY FLOW RETURNING
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IF THIS PLAYS OUT THIS WAY...THEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST IN
THE MORNING...PUSHING WEST AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING BY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL USE VCTS
FOR SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS NE FL PORTS THROUGH 00-02Z. WILL USE
PREVAILING -SHRA WITH VCTS BY 16-18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BECOMING
ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SEA BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ON WED/THU.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  88  68  87 /  20  70  70  50
SSI  75  84  72  85 /  10  70  60  60
JAX  72  88  69  86 /  30  70  70  60
SGJ  74  86  71  84 /  30  70  70  60
GNV  70  88  68  87 /  40  60  60  70
OCF  71  88  70  87 /  40  60  60  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/TRABERT/PETERSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-111000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE
I-95 AND U.S. 301 HIGHWAY CORRIDORS. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL END AROUND
SUNSET ALTHOUGH SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. A RETURN TO TYPICAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

FLZ036-037-040-102100-
ALACHUA-MARION-PUTNAM-
413 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALACHUA...
PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 413 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER CITRA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND CITRA...CROSS
CREEK AND LOCHLOOSA THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 2959 8219 2959 8197 2940 8203 2939 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 198DEG 11KT 2941 8211

NELSON

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