Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
246 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED BY MID LEVEL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING MCS THAT IS NOW
SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SWIRLING OFF THE COAST OF SC. THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE IS ACTUALLY MAKING A LITTLE MORE INLAND
PROGRESS IN NE FL THAN WE HAD ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS
MAINLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS AS WELL AS
THE HEAT GETTING OFF TO A QUICK START THIS MORNING. IN FACT...JAX
HAS ALREADY SOARED UP TO AS HIGH AS 94 SHORTLY AFTER THE NOON
HOUR.

SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE
MAIN EVENT WILL ULTIMATELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MAINLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WHEN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONG
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY HIGH AS MOST
AREAS ARE IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES BY
SUNSET AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
EVENING. ACTIVITY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR MAY BECOME ENHANCED THIS
EVENING AS THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE. THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS MOSTLY FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF NE FL THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE FINALLY WINDING DOWN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.EXTENDED...

THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...SETTING UP OVER NORTHWEST
GEORGIA WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE OF COASTAL GEORGIA
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. SO AFTER A STORMY
NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING MY MID
MORNING AND A SHORT BREAK IN THE STORMS. LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER MCS
WILL SET UP FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR GEORGIA-EXTREME NORTH FLORIDA PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER GEORGIA AND EXTREME
NORTH FLORIDA. AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC ACTION
SHIFTS BACK NORTH WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THE
RULE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORMS WILL WIND DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  92 /  60  60  60  50
SSI  73  89  75  86 /  50  50  50  30
JAX  72  91  70  90 /  50  60  60  50
SGJ  73  88  73  87 /  50  50  50  40
GNV  70  90  70  91 /  30  50  50  50
OCF  70  91  70  91 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHULER/SANDRIK/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-070800-
ALACHUA-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-APPLING-
ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-
CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT TO 20 NM-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-
PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH STRONG WINDS OF AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL
POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. PLEASE RELAY ANY STRONG OR SEVERE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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