Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

.REST OF TODAY...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM AND DEVELOP TOWARD THE W AND NW AS THE
SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND. TEMPS WERE NEAR 90 INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
80S ALONG THE COAST. LAPS AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE OF
AROUND THE 2500-3000 RANGE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE APPROACHING 1000.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALONG WITH STRONG MICROBURST WINDS ARE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY CAUSE BRIEF MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT (AFTER 6PM)...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE EVENING INLAND AREAS AND THEN BECOME ISOLD BY LATE EVENING.
MAINLY ISOLD COVERAGE ALONG THE COASGTAL COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LATE TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT S TO SE WINDS
BECOMING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LOOKS MOST PROBABLE OVER
THE NRN ZONES BUT COULD OCCUR INLAND WHERE RAINS FALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MAINLY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH VORT LOBE SWINGING IN SWLY FLOW
ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION.  DRIER MID LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EDGES INTO SE GA.  HENCE...SOME STORMS MAY
HAVE DOWNBURSTS WITH MAIN FOCUS OF THE STORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
DIURNAL TREND WILL PRETTY MUCH HOLD WITH CONVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION WANING AFTER SUNSET WITH PARTYLY CLOUDY SKIES INTACT.

THIS WEEKEND...WITH BUILDING HIGH TO THE NORTH...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BECOME EASTERLY PUSHING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...

FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK INTO MIDWEEK...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOT WILL BRING MARKEDLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND SEASONAL
TEMPS. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE
ADVECTION WORKING NORTHWARD UP THE PENINSULA ONCE AGAIN. WITH MAIN
MOISTURE PULL COMING FROM THE YUCATAN AND GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT NEAR AND AT TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z EXCEPT FOR SSI AS THE SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED INLAND THERE.
WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AROUND 10-15 KT AND BESOMING SSE THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE STORM ACTIVITY BUT COULD
BRIEFLY GO TO IFR. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY
LIKELY AT VQQ AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE S AND SE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NE OF THE REGION WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS SUN
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT PERSISTING INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  91  68  91 /  30  50  40  50
SSI  72  84  72  84 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  69  90  70  90 /  20  30  20  30
SGJ  71  85  72  84 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  67  89  68  88 /  20  60  50  40
OCF  68  90  69  89 /  20  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/CORDERO/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-
149>154-162>166-301115-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
855 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE BETWEEN THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AND INTERSTATE 75 AFTER 2 PM
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL VERY SLOW TO THE
NORTH WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE FROM A FEW STRONG STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
AREA BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STORM
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
337 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAWTEY                  30.05N 82.07W
05/28/2014                   BRADFORD           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELAYED REPORT FROM THE PUBLIC OF A ROOF BLOWN OFF A SHED
            AND SMALL TREES DOWN.

&&

MTRABERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             STARKE                  29.95N 82.11W
05/29/2014  M1.00 INCH       BRADFORD           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORT AT 581 NORTH TEMPLE AVE

&&

AWALKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
347 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     HAIL             1 ENE STARKE            29.95N 82.10W
05/29/2014  E1.00 INCH       BRADFORD           FL   PUBLIC

&&

AWALKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             STARKE                  29.95N 82.11W
05/29/2014  E1.75 INCH       BRADFORD           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE BEST BARN AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF PRATT AND ORANGE STREETS. VEHICLE WINDOWS
            WERE BUSTED.

0308 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STARKE                  29.95N 82.11W
05/29/2014                   BRADFORD           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES WERE DOWN IN THREE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. AN
            AWNING WAS BLOWN OFF A SCHOOL NEAR PRATT AND TODD. ALSO A
            LARGE TREE WAS DOWN ON BROADWAY AND PRATT.

&&

MTRABERT