Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1018 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK MCS THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR PRE-DAWN STORMS OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SE GA AND NE FL COAST HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. FARTHER INLAND SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND 80 FROM WAYCROSS TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS AT 500 MB ARE AROUND -12C ON MORNING SOUNDING WITH
A FORECAST AND PWAT IS 1.58 INCHES. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL
FORECASTS A SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 2400 BUT WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
ABOVE 70...CAPES COULD REACH 4000 J/KG PER MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z
RAOB. RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT A EAST
TODAY WITH WEAK N-NW STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO FOR LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SSI THROUGH 15Z. TSRA WILL
DEVELOP BTWN 16Z-19Z. HAVE A TEMPO FOR GNV AND VCTS FOR REMAINING
TERMINALS. WILL ADD TSRA AS TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF STORMS BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME SSE TUE THROUGH FRI WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 1-3
FT...OCCASIONAL 4 FT SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH AN EASTERLY
SWELL OF 2 FEET OR LESS IMPACTING AREA BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  65  89  67 /  50  50  50  50
SSI  82  72  84  71 /  30  20  50  50
JAX  87  67  88  69 /  30  30  50  50
SGJ  82  74  84  71 /  20  20  40  40
GNV  90  65  90  67 /  40  50  50  50
OCF  91  68  90  69 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/WOLF/ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
509 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-270915-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
509 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN COASTAL
NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SANTA FE RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SURGE IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON THE SANTA FE
RIVER BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1146 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

GAZ165-166-261615-
COASTAL CAMDEN-INLAND CAMDEN-
1146 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAMDEN COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

AT 1146 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARRIETTS BLUFF...
STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
HARRIETTS BLUFF THROUGH 1215 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3086 8172 3100 8166 3094 8155 3081 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 1546Z 127DEG 1KT 3090 8161

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1209 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

FLZ025-261645-
DUVAL-
1209 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DUVAL COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1209 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 9 MILES NORTH OF FORT CAROLINE...
STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
FORT CAROLINE THROUGH 1245 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3036 8150 3043 8164 3054 8155 3052 8154
      3054 8152 3054 8148 3053 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 035DEG 2KT 3052 8153

TRABERT