Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SCT TO OCNL NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND NE FL AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA.
STORM MOTION IS SLOW TO THE N AND WILL FAVOR PULSE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TONIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES FCST TO BE FOCUSED BETWEEN GNV AND AYS
OVER TO STATENVILLE GA. THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN
15%. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN
AND SOME THINNING OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FOG MAINLY W OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY TO WAYCROSS. LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT S-SE
FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE. WHILE A SHOWER CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE THE WEST. THIS UPPER TROUGH COUPLED
WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN FOLLOWING
THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL MID WEEK...THEN
TREND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CIGS WITH HEALTHY CU FIELD AND CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS POPCORN TYPE CONVECTION LIFTING SLOWLY NWD. BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AT TERMINALS WILL BE AROUND GNV...VQQ AND JAX. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW AT VQQ WITH MVFR IN TSRA. STRONGEST STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERALLY W AND NW OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VSBY DOWN TO IFR.
VICINITY CONVECTION EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND THEN QUICKLY FADING
CONVECTION CHANCES REST OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY AT MORE
FOG PRONE VQQ BETWEEN 07Z-11Z.

&&

.MARINE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE N OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH SE TO E WINDS EXPECTED AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 3-5 FT TUE THROUGH THURS AS A MORE ELY FLOW SENDS MORE
SEA/SWELL ENERGY INTO LOCAL WATERS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO
BE HIGHER BY MID WEEK POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A HEADLINE FOR SCEC FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WITH SURF AROUND 2 FT OR LESS. MORE SWELL
ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW MORE RIPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  89  64  89 /  20  10  10  10
SSI  70  79  70  79 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  68  86  67  87 /  20  10  10   0
SGJ  71  80  70  81 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  67  87  66  89 /  30  10  10   0
OCF  68  88  67  90 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/STRUBLE/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1257 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1257 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH
MORE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE COAST. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

RIVER FLOODING ON THE SANTA FE AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THE SANTA FE AND
SUWANNEE RIVER BASINS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PLW/ARS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
416 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

FLZ024-025-112100-
DUVAL-NASSAU-
416 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DUVAL AND
NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 416 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER OCEANWAY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCEANWAY...
JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL ARPT...RATLIFF AND CALLAHAN THROUGH 500 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3061 8190 3071 8164 3043 8153 3035 8171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 155DEG 7KT 3047 8166

STRUBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
418 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

FLZ025-032-033-112100-
CLAY-DUVAL-ST. JOHNS-
418 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLAY...ST.
JOHNS AND DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MANDARIN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND FLEMING
ISLAND...SWITZERLAND...FRUIT COVE...MANDARIN...ORANGE PARK...
BAYMEADOWS...BELLAIR...NAS JAX...TALLYRAND AND SAN MARCO THROUGH 500
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3029 8188 3039 8162 3011 8151 3003 8170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 155DEG 7KT 3015 8165

STRUBLE