Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NE FL/SE GA...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ALL OF NE FL/SE GA WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...LINGERING FRONT-END OF OLD SQUALL
LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND FL/GA BORDER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AND A
FEW ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND A FEW WEAK
ROTATIONS ALOFT WITH SOME CELLS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...AFTER SUNSET LAST OF CONVECTION SHOULD FADE WITH FAIR
SKIES. WHILE SOUTH FLOW AT 5-10 MPH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS VERY MILD
AROUND 70 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY FOG
EXPECTED BUT LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT SQUALL LINE AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS ALL OF NE FL/SE GA WITH STRONG ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/LIFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS TO HELP INITIATE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS & HAIL BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD SURGE WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOWER 90S ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS INLD NE FL. CONVECTION WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL SEA
BREEZES MOVING IN FROM BOTH COASTS AND SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT THAN
TODAY MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IF ANY TYPE OF
MCS/SQUALL LINE STALLS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

THURSDAY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED DIRECTLY OVER SE GA/NE FL
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE BUT WEAKENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LESS DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY KEEP STORMS
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH MAINLY STRONG STORMS AND SLOWER MOVING
ACTIVITY THAT MAY TRAIN ACROSS SAME AREAS TO PRODUCE MORE OF A
LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH UNCERTAINTY OF TOTAL AMOUNTS DUE TO
CONVECTION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ALL DEPICT RENEWED ENERGY PUSHING OUT
OF THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE GOMEX AND OVERRUNNING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND THIS WILL RE-NEW THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT THIS TIME
AROUND BEING HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIP
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOST THE
RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF THE OVERRUNNING TYPE ACRS NE FL/SE GA
ALTHOUGH STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD SLOW THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN FROM FALLING
THIS WEEKEND WITH A RENEWED PUSH OF MINOR/MODERATE FLOODING IN THE
BASIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...LAST OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ON BACK-SIDE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND MAX TEMPS REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S.

SUN-TUE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR THE USE OF TEMPO
SHRA/TSRA IN THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS RIGHT
OVER THE AIRPORT TERMINALS. ANY IMPACTS FROM STORMS WILL LESSEN BY
SUNSET WITH VFR CONDS...THEN MODELS STILL TRYING TO SUGGEST POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW TO CONTINUE AT 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE WITH SCEC HEADLINES...THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
SUBSIDING SEAS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AT 2-4 FT OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE PLENTIFUL STORM
ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TO CONTINUE WITH SIDE SHORE FLOW AND LACK OF
ANY SUBSTANTIAL EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  85  68  77 /  30  50  50  50
SSI  71  82  70  79 /  20  40  40  50
JAX  71  88  71  83 /  20  40  40  50
SGJ  72  88  71  85 /  20  30  30  50
GNV  69  90  70  85 /  20  40  30  50
OCF  69  92  69  87 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/NELSON/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
321 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-301930-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
321 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY REGION-WIDE...
...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS BRING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVER
ESTATES. ELSEWHERE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES WITHIN
SEVERAL LOCAL RIVER BASINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REGION-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE GREATEST
THREATS WITHIN STRONGER ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION.

MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVERS
ESTATES THROUGH THE WEEK. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN SEVERAL OTHER LOCAL RIVER BASINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             N MACCLENNY             30.28N 82.13W
04/29/2014  E1.00 INCH       BAKER              FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PHOTOS OF HAIL ON FIRST COAST NEWS WEBSITE. SIZE OF HAIL
            ESTIMATED FROM PHOTO OF HAIL IN SUBJECTS HAND.

&&

MM