Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THREAT INCREASING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...ARCTIC COLD FRONT SRN AL WORKING SE. ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
MORNING...SOME PARTIAL SUN WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.  12Z SOUNDINGS
MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON CONFIRM
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABOUT 1000 J/KG MEAN-PARCEL CAPE
AND PRETTY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO VEER TO A MORE SW DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STRENGTHENING
FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL MAINTAIN HELICITY VALUES OF 300 OR GREATER
IN WARM SECTOR. UPPER 60S DEW POINTS SHOULD ADVECT N AND E AS
SURFACE FLOW VEERS AND INCREASES FROM EASTERN GULF OF MEX. UPPER
60S DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED I-10 CORRIDOR.

CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
T-STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE
LINEAR SYSTEM (WITH BOWING SEGMENTS) WITH COLD FRONT MERGING WITH
WEAK BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS SOUTHERN GA INTO FAR NRN FL.  MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL BE KEEPING
EYE ON WHAT MOVES IN FROM ERN GULF OF MEX. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM CURRRENTLY OVER NRN GULF OF MEX. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR THAT WILL EXIST.

GREATEST THREAT TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE 16Z-20Z IN OUR WRN/NRN
COUNTIES...AND 18Z-23Z ERN/SRN COUNTIES. WILL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN FORECAST ALL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD. SPC HAS SLIGHT
RISK FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE A
POTENTIALLY BUSY AFTERNOON HERE.

CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST APPEARS GOOD GIVEN ONGOING PARTIAL HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS HIGHLIGHT EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD FOR TSRA WITH
STRONG WINDS. WILL SEE LOWER CIGS AS SHRA/TSRA APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 00Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
GUSTY WNW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SCA OFFSHORE COMPONENT...SCEC NEARSHORE
COMPONENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK DUE TO MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  34  49  24 /  90  40   0   0
SSI  78  40  51  30 /  90  80   0   0
JAX  80  39  52  27 /  90  80   0   0
SGJ  81  44  54  35 /  80  80   0   0
GNV  78  41  53  27 /  90  80   0   0
OCF  80  44  55  27 /  90  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-FLAGLER-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-
     ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-
     WAYNE.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

WOLF/SHASHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
616 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181014-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
616 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH 2 PM...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

...HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE WATCHES POSTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS...DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A SQUALL
LINE...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL CROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL WATERS....WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TONIGHT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE. WIND CHILLS WILL PLUMMET TO THE MID-20S OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
TOWARDS SUNRISE...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON THUS FAR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HARD FREEZE WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MOST
INLAND COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S. FREEZE WATCHES ARE POSTED ELSEWHERE...WHERE LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON/ABE

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