Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
102 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT ESTIMATES OVER 2 INCHES. COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROCHING FROM THE WEST AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE HAD PRODUCED
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY BY
NOON. HAVE INCREASED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND SE GA AS DEEP SWLY STEERING FLOW SLOWLY PUSHES STORMS
NEWD. ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS
WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO S/CENTRAL GA. HAVE ADDED
LIKELY POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES WILL MERGE THIS AFTN MAINLY
BETWEEN HWY 301 AND I-95. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING FROM THE ALTAMAHA RIVER NEAR
JESUP AND BRUNSWICK SOUTH THROUGH JAX METRO AREA TO THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE BY 10 PM. RE-
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST. WET
MICROBURSTS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IS THE MAIN CONCERN. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONAL.

FRI...BROAD SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE SW STEERING FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AS A MEAN TROUGH CARVES OUT
OVER THE SE REGION. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS OVER 2 INCHES) WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/TSTORMS...WITH DEVELOPMENT INITIATING FIRST NEAR THE GULF
COAST REGION. ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES (60%) FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AND I-75 WHERE
SEA BREEZES/OUTFLOWS/INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
PHASE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
DOWNBURSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
RISE TO NEAR 90 WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTION LIMITING
HEATING SOMEWHAT. CONVECTION WILL TAPPER OFF GRADUALLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH SLOW DRIFT OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FRI NIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED.

SAT...MEAN RIDGING WILL EDGE NORTHWARD OVER N-CENTRAL FL WHICH
WILL DECREASE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN
WITH A VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW EXPECTED. THUS
ANTICIPATED 40-50% COVERAGE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS AS SEA BREEZES BOTH TREK INLAND UNDER LIGHT FLOW. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S COAST. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY FADE INLAND AFTER SUNSET...AS LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE
LOW 70S INLAND SAT NIGHT TO MID 70S RIVER/COAST.

.LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH THU...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE
EXPECTED SUN AND MON WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS TEMPERING
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AS IT LINGERS OVER N-CENTRAL FL.

TUE-THU THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS YET ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH SAGS
SOUTHWARD OVER GA. DESPITE LOW LEVEL FORCING IN PLACE...THE GFS40
ADVERTISES PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES TUE AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ALOFT BOTH TUE/WED WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER PERIOD
OF NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES RISE TO 40-50% INLAND THU AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND
MEAN LAYER TROUGHING BEGINS TO CARVE OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND NEAR 90/UPPER 80S
COAST...AND MINS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE TSRA BEGINNING AT GNV AFTER 17Z AND WILL ADJUST FOR EARLIER
START AT JAX...VQQ AND CRG. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE EAST
COAST WELL INTO THE EVENING AND WILL KEEP VCTS UNTIL 02Z. MVFR
VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT VQQ...GNV.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE  OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL PROVIDE SE-S FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE S-SW MON-TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  93 /  50  60  60  50
SSI  75  87  76  86 /  50  50  50  40
JAX  73  92  74  90 /  40  60  60  40
SGJ  75  88  75  86 /  30  50  40  30
GNV  71  91  71  89 /  40  60  60  50
OCF  72  90  71  89 /  30  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-111000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
233 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES...AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING A LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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