Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOOK A LITTLE LONGER TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE ENHANCED GUST
POTENTIAL WITH DRIER MID LEVEL. STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
TWILIGHT HOURS THEN MARKEDLY DIMINISH DURING THE MID EVENING.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SFC TROF FEATURE THAT IS AROUND THE ST MARYS RIVER TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON THE 4TH OF JULY. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TSTMS JACKSONVILLE TO GAINESVILLE LINE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ISOLD COVERAGE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...WITH NIL ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON THE 4TH OF JULY
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. DIMINISHING MID EVENING FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY-SHEAR LINE BECOMES THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER FLORIDA WHILE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND HOT.

MONDAY THOUGH FRIDAY THE OLD BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE BUT THE MODE
OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MORE DIURNALLY SEA BREEZE DRIVEN FOR ALL
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

OVERALL THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS AROUND
3 T0 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP ALSO APPEARS
TO BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH A BIT HIGHER CHANCES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND BELOW NORMAL FOR GEORGIA
ON THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FOCUSED ON
BOUNDARY ALONG ST MARYS...WITH AFTN TSTORM PROBABILITIES AROUND
40% AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VCTS BETWEEN 19-01Z. THERE IS SOME GUST
POTENTIAL TO 45 KNOTS WITH STRONGER STORMS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTION WANES AROUND 02Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA
TERMINALS WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 5SM AT CECIL FIELD. DRIER AIR
SEEPS INTO THE REGION FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH BEST AFTN TSTM
COVERAGE SOUTH OF A GAINESVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE LINE INTO NCENTRAL
FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH 5 PM. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 40 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE RANGE
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE...WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS NORTH OF THE ST. MARYS RIVER
40 TO 60NM OFFSHORE OF THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. AFTER 5 PM...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECAY AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING ALLOWING ALL ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN...WITH PERHAPS SCEC
CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE ST MARYS TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND FROM 40 TO
60 NM.

RIP CURRENTS:AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  95  70  94 /  30   0  10  20
SSI  76  91  75  87 /  30  10  20  20
JAX  75  96  74  93 /  30  20  30  30
SGJ  76  91  75  88 /  30  30  40  30
GNV  74  94  71  92 /  30  30  30  40
OCF  74  93  71  91 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SANDRIK/CORDERO/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
319 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-040818-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
319 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS...

...HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM ARTHUR WILL SKIRT THE COAST THIS MORNING. BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE SQUALLS.

SWELLS FROM ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE COAST TODAY.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
INLAND...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES WILL RISE
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
321 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

GAZ150-163-164-032000-
CHARLTON-CLINCH-WARE-
321 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WARE...CLINCH
AND CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTH OF STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3098 8256 3097 8200 3055 8208 3065 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 286DEG 10KT 3075 8235

NELSON

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