Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
204 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PUSHING NEWD OVER THE
FL PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL GA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLC. A
SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE MID ATLC COAST S INTO NE FL.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SUBDUED TODAY WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING...AND ATLC SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CROSSING THE BIG BEND INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS AFTN. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING AFTER 3 PM OVER
THE SRN TIER AND MARCHING EWD. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WHEN THE
SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER THE ERN COUNTIES LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN
THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME. WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN.

UPR RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRI/SAT. LOW-LEVEL NW FLOW WILL
KEEP EAST COAST SEA BREEZE GENERALLY E OF I-95 CORRIDOR. MOIST
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BOTH DAYS. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN MID 90S WELL INLAND...
LOW 90S NEAR COAST...LOWS BOTH NIGHTS LOW 70S INLAND...MID 70S
COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM....SUN THRU WED...

GFS/ECM SHOW WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF COAST OF SC SUNDAY...
THEN DIFFER ON FUTURE OF WEAK SYSTEM. ECM MOVES IT SW TOWARD
AND OVER NRN FL...WHILE NEW GFS STALL WEAK LOW OVER GULF STREAM
SUN/MON. OTHER MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS FORECAST
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WEAKER GFS SOLUTION OF STALLED WEAK LOW WELL
OFFSHORE OF GA...WITH WEAK EAST TO NORTH FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
AROUND CIRCULATION.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE...THOUGH SLIGHT COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL POSSIBLE EASTERN
COUNTIES IF WEAK OFFSHORE LOW GENERATES NE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
SE GA/NE FL COASTLINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF TSRA WHICH ARE
FORECAST FOR LATE AFTN BEGINNING 21Z THROUGH 01Z. A SEA BREEZE
WILL SHIFT WINDS BRIEFLY TO SE AT CRG AND SSI. THE SBRZ MAY REACH
JAX AROUND 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC RIDGE
REMAINS S OF THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TROUGH/SFC LOW
E OF ST AUGUSTINE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY STRONGER N
TO NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WILL SHOW ONSHORE WINDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  93  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  76  90  76  92 /  20  20  20  20
JAX  73  93  73  95 /  30  30  30  30
SGJ  75  90  75  92 /  30  30  30  30
GNV  72  93  71  95 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  72  93  71  95 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/WOLF/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
436 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-
149>154-162>166-270915-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
436 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BECOME STRONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND COASTAL AREAS. STORM MOTION WILL
BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STORM SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT OR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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