Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
232 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU...

SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER AND HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNDER WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. PREVAILING WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TOWARD
THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THU WHERE
SEA BREEZES...OUTFLOWS AND INSTABILITY WILL ALL COINCIDE TO
SUPPORT BEST TSTORM CHANCES.

THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLUSTER OF TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
INTERESTS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT CONVERGES WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM OVER SE GA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. HIGH INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH OUTFLOWS AND THE
SEA BREEZES SHOULD YIELD AN ACTIVE CLUSTER OF LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS OVER SE WHICH WILL TRACK TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND I-10
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ADVERTISED ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE SE GA COAST.

WED-THU...SWATH OF DRIER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT INDICATED VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NNE AND POSITION OVER THE AREA EARLY WED. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER/TSTORMS OVER THE AREA
WED...BUT LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT 30-40% RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND SE
GA WED AFTN. ALSO NOTE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WINDS AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH DEEPENS SOUTHWARD...AND THIS
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS COUPLE WITH DRIER AIR COULD SUPPORT
SOME STRONG TSTORM WIND GUSTS WED AFTN. HIGHER MOISTURE EXPECTED
THU AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SEA
BREEZES...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 40-50% OVER NE FL TO 30-40%
OVER SE GA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL FADE AT NIGHT WITH
LOSS OF HEATING INLAND...WITH RESURRECTION OF ACTIVITY NEAR THE
GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT DRIFTING INLAND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 90S AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH MILD/MUGGY LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH TUE...

PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW FORMS
ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE AND THE LOW RETROGRADES SSW FROM SC
FRI TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY SAT THE
GFS ADVERTISED A ESE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN
INCREASINGLY DOMINANT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME SUN-TUE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SE ATLANTIC FROM
THE GULF WHICH SHOULD HELP TO 'TAME' AFTN AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ALSO BRING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.
ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE FRI WITH A DOMINANT
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME...THEN TRANSITION DAY SAT WITH 30-40%
INLAND...AND BY SUN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WAS REFLECTED IN THE
RAIN CHANCE FORECAST WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTN THEN THE PRECIP CHANCES SHIFTING INLAND
WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN INTO THE AFTN/EVENING TOWARD
INTERSTATE 75 WHERE SEA BREEZES/OUTFLOWS WILL MERGE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 90S...EVEN UPPER 90S IN SOME
SPOTS...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S
UNDER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAIING VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL CONVECTION HITS WITH
VSBYS AND CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS...WITH GUSTS TO 29 KTS
REPORTED AT GNV WHEN TSTORMS PASSED THROUGH. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR TS THIS AFTN AT JAX...CRG...VQQ...SSI...AND REMOVED VC WORDING
FROM GNV FOR NOW...BUT STILL COULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IMPACT THE SITE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AFTER SUNSET PRECIP WILL WANE AND INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR DUE TO
BR AT VQQ AROUND 08Z BASED ON PERSISTENCE. CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO ADVANCED INLAND FROM THE GULF EARLY WED MORNING WITH
GNV LIKELY THE FIRST SITE TO BE AFFECTED AROUND MIDDAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...PREVAILING WEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED. COMBINED SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PREVAIL.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  93  72  96 /  50  30  30  40
SSI  74  89  76  90 /  60  40  40  40
JAX  72  94  73  93 /  50  40  40  50
SGJ  73  90  74  90 /  40  40  40  50
GNV  70  93  72  93 /  30  30  30  50
OCF  71  92  72  93 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/SANDRIK/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
318 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-
149>154-162>166-250900-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
318 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. STORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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