Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUE...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED DIURNAL PRECIP PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
SE GA AND NE FL TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER A MOIST WSW STEERING FLOW.
PWATS WILL NEAR 2 INCHES WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BOTH
CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS THAT FAVOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRIER
AIR AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WED
WHICH WILL DECREASE TSTORM COVERAGE SOME.

THIS AFTN...ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM YESTERDAYS PRECIP HAS HELPED
LIMIT INSTABILITY THIS AFTN AND THUS STORMS REMAIN FAIRLY TAME COMPARED
TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ENE STEERING FLOW WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER SE
GA AND TOWARD THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STRONG TSTORMS MAY FORM AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR WITH THE IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARDS.

TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL TAPPER OFF AFTER SUNSET OVER INLAND AREAS AND
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ACTIVITY WILL REGENERATE NEAR THE
GULF COAST AND APALACHEE BAY UNDER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. LINGERING
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT WHILE A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY LATE FOG DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...PRECIP WILL EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD GILCHRIST...ALACHUA...MARION AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING INLAND UNDER WSW STEERING
FLOW TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. ADVERTISED RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING TO NEAR 60% OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY
WITH 60% RAIN CHANCES OVER SE GA AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC
COAST INTO TUE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY FADING AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE A BIT LOWER DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WITH HIGHS NEARING
90 DEG INLAND TO UPPER 80S COAST WITH MOIST AND STICKY DEW PTS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TUE NIGHT.

WED & WED NIGHT...GFS ADVERTISES THE MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB RIDGE AXIS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH FL WITH A CENTER OVER EASTERN GULF WHICH
WILL BRING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS
ADVERTISED A POCKET OF PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES TRAVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE THE NAM IS MORE MOIST WITH PWATS 1.75 IN OR SO. ANTICIPATE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS IN COVERAGE ON WED DUE TO A BIT LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE BUT SCATTERED AFTN TSTORMS MAY HAVE STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT.
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AND ADVERTISED LOW 20%
RAIN CHANCES MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF WED MORNING...WITH 40-50% RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND OVER INLAND SE GA DURING
THE AFTN/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TROUGHING WILL PERSIST GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION WITH
A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA. THIS REGIME WILL BRING A DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PATTERN TO THE AREA...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5-2 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL HELP TO TEMPER AFTN/EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BASICALLY
ADVERTISED 30-40% RAIN CHANCES EACH PERIOD FOR NOW WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR WHERE AFTN/EVENING
SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS WILL FOCUS. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND MINS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. BASED ON DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
AND HIGH INSTABILITY...INCLUDED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS TO 30 KTS WITHIN TEMPO GROUPS. CONVECTION WILL WANE
AFTER SUNSET WITH LINGERING PRECIP NEAR SSI/CRG POSSIBLE...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP NEAR THE GULF COAST EARLY TUE MORNING
UNDER PREVAILING WEST FLOW. INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR AFTER 07Z TONIGHT
AT CRG AND VQQ DUE TO GROUND FOG AND PERSISTENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY AFTN TS EXPECTED TUE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTH FL AND TROUGHING
PERSISTING TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WSW WINDS
WILL BECOME SSE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEARING 10-15 KTS AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EACH PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  90  70  94 /  50  60  60  50
SSI  75  86  74  90 /  50  60  60  40
JAX  71  91  72  93 /  50  60  60  50
SGJ  73  88  73  89 /  50  60  60  40
GNV  70  90  71  93 /  40  60  50  40
OCF  71  90  71  93 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/SANDRIK/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-241000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
254 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
TO EAST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH INLAND AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
352 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

FLZ040-232030-
MARION-
352 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 352 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES EAST OF WEIRSDALE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND WEIRSDALE...OCKLAWAHA...LAKE WEIR...MOSS BLUFF...JUNIPER
SPRINGS AND SALT SPRINGS THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER
INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2937 8180 2934 8168 2931 8167 2928 8164
      2905 8163 2904 8165 2896 8166 2895 8166
      2896 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 217DEG 24KT 2900 8181

STRUBLE

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