Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
207 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...AFTERNOON AND EVENING PULSE THUNDERSTORMS...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND RIVER BREEZE OVER NE FL...WITH A STRONGER
CAP OVER SE GA SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT FOR
LONG. STILL ANTICIPATE TSTORMS WILL POP OVER SE GA THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF A TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND RESULTANT OUTFLOWS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL FORCING OVER A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING
TSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SE GA. CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE 40-50% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS BETWEEN I-75
AND I-95...WITH LOWER CHANCES TO 20-30% ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WET
DOWNBURST WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE IN SLOW MOVING STORM CELLS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW/MID 90S...WITH COOLER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS DROPPING TEMPS
INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.

THIS EVENING MOST TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING OVER SE GA WITH
DECREASING ACTIVITY OVER NE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET...WITH A
GRADUALLY PUSH IN PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL ZONE DROPS
FARTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL GA. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE A MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LIKELY GETTING AN EARLY
START ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION. A
MOIST AND HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MIN
TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST TO NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. DAILY CONVECTION
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN HIGH WITH SEA BREEZES
MERGING LATE DAY NEAR THE EAST COAST. STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS AFTERNOON STORMS TO THE
NORTH...WHICH MAY THEN ADVECT INTO OUR SE GA COUNTIES DURING THE
LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND POPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO
LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED DAILY CONVECTION...BECOMING NUMEROUS NEAR THE EAST
COAST AS SEA BREEZES MERGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE MOSTLY LOW
70S/LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCTS ADVERTISED AT ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-21Z. TEMPO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY FELL...BUT
NOT LIKELY GIVEN LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SSW WINDS 10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO WEST 15
KNOTS AS A SURFACE TROUGH SINKS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST. PREVAILING WSW WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH THU
WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN EAST SWELLS ON SUNDAY AND
SUN NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF THE JAX COAST
TRACKING ENE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. ELEVATED RISK POSSIBLE SUNDAY DUE TO
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE JAX COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  72  95  72 /  40  40  50  40
SSI  91  77  89  75 /  20  30  60  60
JAX  95  73  94  73 /  40  40  60  60
SGJ  91  75  90  73 /  30  30  60  60
GNV  94  73  91  71 /  40  40  50  40
OCF  93  73  91  71 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/ZIBURA/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
517 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-220845-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
517 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 95 LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG
AND GUSTY  WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

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