Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
232 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ON AREA EXTENDS FROM THE GA COASTAL WATERS SW TO FLAGLER COUNTY AND
IS WEAKENING. THE OTHER AREA EXTENDS FROM INTERIOR SE GA INTO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. WITH THE SE GA PORTION RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
BREAKS EARLIER...ENOUGH HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. THINK THE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL DECREASE AS THEY
MOVE EAST INTO EXTREME NE FL IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS THE AREA
HAS HAD MORE CLOUDS AND STABILIZATION FROM PRECIP EARLIER IN THE
DAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL USE HIGH END SCATTERED TO
LOW END NUMEROUS POPS FOR NE FL/EXTREME SE GA...WITH LOW/MID END
SCATTERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SE GA. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS SE GA AS A TROUGH CLIPS TO THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY...WITH SOME CONVERGENT SHWRS
IN SW FLOW MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL TNGT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE
NE...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS LESS
TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. WILL USE MID END SCATTERED POPS FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
CLOSEST TO A WEAK IMPULSE WHICH IS PROGGED TO CROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. ANY ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING. NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PREVAIL.

SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP COVERAGE CAN
BE EXPECTED. WILL USE HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AFTN...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER
THAN FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...WITH SOME TROUGHINESS LINGERING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THUS...WILL KEEP
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK SO STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND
FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST EACH DAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL USE VCTS
FOR ALL PORTS THIS AFTN FOR SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH
TEMPOS POSSIBLE FOR NE FL PORTS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF WIND SURGE IS LIKELY TNGT...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. WILL USE
CAUTION FOR ALL OFFSHORE LEGS...AND THE GS NEARSHORE LEG TNGT.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL S/SW FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE
WITH OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  91  70  89 /  20  40  30  50
SSI  73  87  73  86 /  20  30  30  40
JAX  71  90  70  90 /  30  40  30  50
SGJ  72  89  72  87 /  30  40  30  40
GNV  68  91  69  88 /  30  40  40  60
OCF  69  91  70  88 /  40  50  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/PETERSON/WALKER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
119 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. AUGUSTINE           29.89N 81.31W
06/12/2014  M48 MPH          ST. JOHNS          FL   AWOS

&&

AWALKER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
152 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

FLZ031-035-036-121845-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST-
152 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BRADFORD...
ALACHUA AND GILCHRIST COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 153 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES EAST OF BELL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BELL...
NEWBERRY...HIGH SPRINGS...ALACHUA...LA CROSSE...BROOKER...
GAINESVILLE...GAINESVILLE AIRPORT...NEWNANS LAKE AND WALDO THROUGH
245 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2984 8287 2985 8272 2983 8269 2983 8264
      2986 8262 2985 8260 2987 8259 2991 8212
      2960 8211 2963 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 268DEG 35KT 2974 8275

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
159 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

GAZ136-151>153-121845-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE-WAYNE-
159 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WAYNE...
PIERCE...BRANTLEY AND GLYNN COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTH OF PATTERSON...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
PATTERSON...RAYBON...HORTENSE...WAYNESVILLE AND ATKINSON THROUGH 245
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3146 8173 3122 8171 3121 8222 3139 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 265DEG 18KT 3131 8212

PETERSON

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