River Flood Warning 9, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
146 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON...

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE SLIGHTLY SLOW...HRRR GENERALLY DOING GOOD JOB INDICATING
SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 2PM...
THEN WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE 2-4PM TIMEFRAME. HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL NRN AND WRN COUNTIES OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THEN THAT THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG WINDS.

RAIN BAND SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NRN PART OF NE FL THIS
EVENING AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CONTINUED CURRENT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHERE
BAND SETS UP ACROSS NORTHEAST FL OR FAR SOUTHEAST GA LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

WILL AIM TO LET LAKE WIND ADVY EXPIRE AT 23Z.  NUMEROUS SITES
CURRENTLY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET...BUT ANTICIPATE WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT.
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE. EXPECTING LOW TEMPS UPR 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS SE GA...60-65 RANGE ACROSS NE FL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A BAND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS NE FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE NUDGING SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF. WITH SOME BULK LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NE FLORIDA
MONDAY AFTN...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS ADDITIONAL WAVES RIDE ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NE FL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
SOME ACROSS SE GA MONDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS ACTIVITY EARLY ON DIMINISHING
IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER LEVEL EJECTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTN.
AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50
TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
NEAR ZONAL ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP COLDER AIR WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT
TRAILED BY SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW THU AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER LOWER MS RIVER. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND
OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRI. BY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP...THUS WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS WED-FRI WILL MODERATE
TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES BY THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD
IN LATER IN THE EVENING...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS. ANTICIPATE LOW CIGS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN...WITH BUOY 41008
NEARING SCA...THUS WILL RETAIN THE SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THE WINDS MONDAY AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS...NORTHERLY WINDS TO SCA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR/UNDER CAUTION
CRITERIA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  64  50  63 /  90  80  60  60
SSI  63  63  52  59 / 100 100  80  70
JAX  62  68  55  68 /  90 100  90  70
SGJ  67  69  58  68 /  70 100 100  80
GNV  63  71  57  74 /  80 100 100  70
OCF  64  73  60  75 /  70 100 100  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

ALLEN/WOLF/PETERSON

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