River Flood Warning 20, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014

...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES FOR SE GA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NE FL...

.SHORT TERM...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
EWD IN ASSOCD WITH A SQUALL LINE THROUGH SE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANEE VALLEY AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. A TORNADO WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SE GA AND A COUPLE OF NE FL COUNTIES. THE WATCH MAY
BE EXPANDED FURTHER EWD INTO NE FL PENDING FURTHER RADAR TRENDS.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A BIT BUT STILL LIMITED TO ABOUT 400-800
OVER SE GA AND SIMILAR IF NOT HIGHER IN NE FL. TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP
TO AROUND 90 AT OCALA BUT SE GA WAS IN THE UPPER 70S N OF WAYCROSS.
HAVE SHIFTED HIGH POPS A BIT FURTHER EWD THIS EVENING AND HAVE
CATEGORICAL CHANCES (80-100%) FOR MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGH AROUND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AND
PARTS OF SE GA...GIVEN STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE RRQ OF UPPER LEVEL
JET AND HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN FCST AND GRIDS. THE 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS
AMOUNTS NEED TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES TO GET AREAL FLOODING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT ANS ASSOCD PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NE FL
MOST OF THE MORNING HAVING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
OVER ERN CWA ZONES. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST IN
THE AFTN WITH WRAP AROUND ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.
HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE 70S WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
SHOWER POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST
ON WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING.
COLD ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL LEVELS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN
COULD NOT RULE OUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AT
SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
BY 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS...HIGHER OFFSHORE
AND HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOSE PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BY LATE TUE AFTN AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE
COAST. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AGAIN EARLY WED BUT WINDS LOOK TO MAX
OUT AROUND 20 KT OR SO. WINDS WILL LET UP BY WED NIGHT AND AS WEAK
HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THU AND
FRI AT SPEEDS AT 15 KT OR LESS WITH SFC RIDGE PARKED OVER S GA AND N
FL.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO WINDS AND SURF ALONG WITH 2
TO 3 FT LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  71  49  73 /  80  40  20  10
SSI  64  71  53  71 /  90  80  20  10
JAX  65  74  52  72 /  90  90  30  10
SGJ  68  74  56  70 /  80  90  30   0
GNV  66  74  51  74 /  90  90  20   0
OCF  66  74  54  75 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

SHASHY/STRUBLE/WALKER

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