Frost Advisory 4, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

...LIGHT FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...

NOW THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE
W-CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE SRN TIP OF FL.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA IS KEEPING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS 15G20 MPH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 56-62 BY MID
AFTERNOON THEN DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW. EXPECT A
LIGHT FREEZE FOR INLAND SE GA SOUTH INTO THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
OF NE FL...AND WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING AND AREAS OF FROST
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. LATE TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER
GA AND SC...WITH A LIGHT NELY FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH WILL KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 40S.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUED AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN RAPIDLY
MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. WILL HAVE ONE
MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP
BEGINNING SATURDAY. WILL BE CONTINUED DRY INTO SAT THEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PROGRESSING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST EARLY SUN...WITH THIS FEATURE
TRAVERSING THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR OR PERHAPS SOUTHEAST GA ON SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIKELY POPS WERE USED REGION-WIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER INSERTED INTO
THE FORECAST GRIDS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A WINDOW OF
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY BY SUN
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S REGION-WIDE AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE GA/CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA EARLY ON MON. LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS
IN CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TOWARDS SUNRISE MON. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOWER
60S FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT PERSISTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MON...WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS PUSHING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON MON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUES/WED.  DECIDED TO SHOW A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS BY LATE MON FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH CHANCE
POPS CONTINUING MON NIGHT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL AND
ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE. WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY BISECTING OUR
CWA ON MON...A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP GRADIENT WAS PLACED IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS...WITH LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...RANGING TO THE MID
70S IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOWS MON NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE 40S
INLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING COASTAL NORTHEAST FL IN THE 50S. CONFIDENCE IN TUES
FORECAST REMAINS LOW...AND DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN NORTHEAST
FL IN DEFERENCE TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW CLIMO
HIGHS...AND USED 60S FOR ALL LOCATIONS. FLOW ALOFT SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME ZONAL...AND A MODERATING AND DRYING TREND WAS INDICATED FOR
WED/THURS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS WED AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPS FOR NEXT THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AND WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE FOR
NEARSHORE WATERS AT 19Z. SLOWLY SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION FRI PRODUCING ONSHORE WINDS WHICH WILL THEN BECOME SOUTH
BY SAT AS THE HIGH SLIDES EWD INTO THE WRN ATLC. A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY MOVING OVER THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  69  44  75 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  41  63  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  36  68  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  44  66  52  73 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  34  72  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  36  73  48  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.

GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-
     WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

TRABERT/PETERSON

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