Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A BAND OF MODERATE/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND AFFECTING
ST JOHNS/FLAGLER COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO
SPREAD OUT INTO THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES...AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS TREND THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH MOST OF NE FL AND COASTAL
SE GA EXPERIENCING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS ACTIVITY ACROSS COASTAL NE FL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TNGT...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING
NEAR THE COAST AND EXTENDING SOMEWHAT INLAND. FAR INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH LESS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 INLAND...WITH LOWER/MID 70S COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH
THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF. CONVERGENT NE FLOW
AND RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS NE FL IN THE AFTN. EXPECT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND SE GA IN A DRIER AIR MASS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
ON SUNDAY WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE GULF COAST REGION.
A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TROUGH AND MOVE EAST TOWARD THE REGION
ON MONDAY. WITH THIS TROUGH DEVELOPING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO HAVE
TRIMMED BACK POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE
TRENDED POPS TOWARD LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
INTO MONDAY EVENING PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN THIS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW. WHILE THE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG...A PERIOD OR TWO OF ENHANCED FLOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS...WITH
THE SHOWERS PUSHING FURTHER INLAND DURING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
USE VCSH FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH PREVAILING -SHRA AT
CRG/SSI LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ENHANCED NE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN...AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WILL USE CAUTION
FOR THE GA COASTAL WATERS INTO THE NE FL WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE 15 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL WILL TURN TO THE S/SW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN TO THE N/NW MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  83  70  85 /  20  30  20  40
SSI  71  81  72  81 /  40  50  30  40
JAX  70  85  72  85 /  40  60  30  40
SGJ  73  85  74  84 /  60  60  30  40
GNV  71  87  71  87 /  40  60  30  40
OCF  72  87  71  88 /  40  60  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/STRUBLE/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
506 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-270915-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
506 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND AREA-WIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
316 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 ENE BUNNELL           29.50N 81.18W
09/26/2014  M3.56 INCH       FLAGLER            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER IS REPORTING 3.56 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
            FALLEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS IN PALM COAST.

&&

WALSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
409 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     FLOOD            PALM COAST              29.57N 81.21W
09/26/2014                   FLAGLER            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS SEVERAL VEHICLES AND A SCHOOL BUS STRANDED IN
            WATER OVER ROADWAY IN WESTERN SECTION OF PALM COAST.

&&

LSTRUBLE