Coastal Flood Statement 1, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
158 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE
WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON IN MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD MERGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVER SRN GA WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. FOLLOWING HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET...WITH VERY
LITTLE LEFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL GA. MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR AREA WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENING OUT ACRS S FL. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SRN AL/GA. THESE
DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER ABOVE 2 INCHES...SEA
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR
SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE THE W-SW STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH THE
DOMINATE WEST COAST SBRZ INLAND BY MID-DAY AND THEN FOCUS NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF NE FL LATE IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES...SE GA WILL HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING
100-105 EACH AFTN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE TO NEW ENGLAND
BY FRI AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES NEXT WEEKEND. MEAN
TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL LOCALLY WITH RIDGING OVER SOUTH FL. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GA...DECAYING BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION. THE ADDITION OF OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES AND NUMEROUS
SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES COULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING PAST MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF TSRA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE REGION SITS
BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
S FL. WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN IN RESPONSE
TO A SEA BREEZE. NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SPEEDS UP TO
15 KTS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  94  75  93 /  40  60  60  60
SSI  77  90  76  91 /  50  60  60  50
JAX  74  93  75  93 /  50  60  60  50
SGJ  75  92  75  92 /  30  50  50  50
GNV  72  93  73  92 /  20  50  50  50
OCF  73  91  73  92 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/TRABERT/GUILLET