Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...GRIDS AND ZONES UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 521 OUT THROUGH 5 AM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE REGION. PRIMARY RISK IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCOMING SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM LINE CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AND MUCH
OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW MAINLY TO SPEED
PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH THE REGION. /BB/

DISCUSSION...AT 830 PM AN IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT WAS GETTING READING
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX WHILE A SOLID LINE OF LOCALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS BARRELING EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF OUR REGION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SQUALL LINE HAS
GENERALLY BEEN PROGRESSING FASTER THAN NEARLY ALL COMPUTER MODEL
EXPECTATIONS AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK THE FEATURE WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW OR DISPERSE AS IT MARCHES ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE FRONT (AND THESE STORMS) IS PROVING POTENT
IN TERMS OF SHEAR AND LIFT...DESPITE HEIGHT FIELDS HIGHER THAN WHAT
IS GENERALLY DEEMED NECESSARY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED BAROCLINIC-DRIVEN
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ADJUSTING TO THESE TRENDS FOR
THIS UPDATE I HAVE SPED UP MAIN THUNDERSTORM LINE ARRIVAL AND
DEPARTURE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE EXPANDED
THE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT FOR ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF MS. THE
MAIN RISK STILL LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA) ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOW LCLS. ALSO OF AT LEAST SOME CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED PRE-SQUALL SEVERE SUPERCELL OR TWO ALTHOUGH WE
CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE THE SQUALL-LINE MODE OF CONVECTION TO BE THE
MAIN DEAL.

CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MANAGED TO DELIVER ONE TO AS MUCH AS THREE
INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EAST-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE REGION. FLOODING HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED
BUT THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT COULD MANAGE TO DROP A QUICK INCH (OR
MAYBE TWO INCHES) OF RAIN IN SOME SPOTS. THE RESULT IN A VERY FEW
SPOTS COULD BE MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ALTHOUGH THE RISK DOES NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A RISK IN THE HWO.

THE SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND IT IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW THE ACTUAL PRECISE BOUNDARY COULD SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A STORM) WELL BEHIND THE MAIN DEPARTED BAND
OF CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON SOME DWINDLING WEST-TO-EAST POPS KEPT
IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW BUT PERCENTAGES WERE LOWERED
CONSIDERABLY. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE
ANALYSIS...SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. UPPER
JET ENERGY WAS DIGGING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE FOR A
NEGATIVE TILTED FEATURE LATER. THERE WAS SOME GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OVER OUR REGION FLAT MEAN RIDING WAS NOTED
WHERE DRY MIDLEVEL AIR(VAPOR IMAGERY) WAS PUSHING OVER THE REGION.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS A GOOD MOISTURE SURGE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM ADVECTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PUSHING NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT OVER
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION. SPC MESO PAGE WAS SHOWING SOME
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
IN THE NORTH. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO LINGER DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND NATIONAL WRF
MEMBERS HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 PM. THIS
WILL GIVE THE STORMS SOME EXTRA MOMENTUM PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW MODELS HINT AT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KNOTS...0-1 KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KNOTS...SR HELICITY AROUND 150 FOR 1KM AND 3KM
LEVELS. STABILITY WILL BE GRADUALLY WANING AS THE LINEAR COMPLEX OF
STORMS MOVES INTO THE DELTA REGION. LATEST HRR SHOWS 10 METER 50
KNOT GUSTS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION. SO HAVE OPTED TO
PUT IN ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA THEN LIMITED ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. MODELS SHOW
THAT LAPSE RATES WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL
RISK DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS. THE TIMING
TO THE STORMS WILL BE FROM 9 PM UNTIL 2 AM. SOME OF THE LIMITATIONS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL NOTED BY THE MODELS LIKE THE WARM
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICS PULLING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND THE TIMING OF THE LINEAR COMPLEX. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR
WATCHING OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GET A NEGATIVE TILT OVER
THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND STRONG
CONVERGENCE FOR SOME EFFICIENT RAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...THE LAST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A QUIET AND COOLER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS DURING THE
PERIOD. LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
FOR SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE 69-75...WHICH IS 8 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER
40S...WHICH WILL BE 8 TO 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO GMOS GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE.  FOR POPS WENT WENT WITH
CURRENT HIGHER POPS FOR TONIGHT AND NEAR GMOS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY./17/

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...A VERY PLEASANT EARLY
FALL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80. CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE A TAD
WARMER AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.  A
WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THAT TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /17/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
A POTENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
FROM NW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
FLIGHT CATS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA AND POCKETS OF 30-50 KT WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN DELTA REGION 03-05Z. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 10 TO 12Z AS THE LINE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE REGION BUT CONTINUED FLIGHT CAT PROBLEMS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE A WEST TO EAST IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES./BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  83  47  73 /  88  18   5   0
MERIDIAN      71  83  46  71 /  83  36   6   0
VICKSBURG     69  82  50  75 /  88   9   5   0
HATTIESBURG   72  86  53  75 /  73  39   6   0
NATCHEZ       70  82  49  74 /  83  13   5   0
GREENVILLE    66  80  49  73 /  99   7   6   0
GREENWOOD     69  79  45  71 /  95  10   6   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
700 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-040000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
700 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

A SQUALL LINE CONTAINING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 60
MPH WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 9 PM AND 1 AM.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>056-059>061-040000-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
700 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...LATE TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...LATE TONIGHT

A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ057-058-062>066-072>074-040000-
JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
700 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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