Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1052 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES. ALL
ELSE IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DIFFICULT FORECAST SCENARIO EXISTS FOR TODAY
AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS AND TOWARD
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...WHILE THE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETS UP GENERALLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THIS
PATTERN IS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY AND THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO
WESTERN MS. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
GUIDANCE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAID MOIST-CONVERGENCE AXIS WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES AND SB CAPE ~3500 J/KG WILL EXIST. LAPSE RATES WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR GETTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

OVERALL... HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ABOVE SCENARIO...
INCREASED THEM EAST AND DECREASED THEM OVER PORTIONS OF THE LA/MS
DELTA REGION...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN
10-15 KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO
EXIST. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WERE SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS. THROUGH NOON...LOOK FOR CEILING
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF JACKSON
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE AREA...NOT
SURE HOW MUCH THUNDER WILL BE AROUND...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS
FROM 20-24Z. A BOUNDARY OFF TO NORTHWEST WAS SLOWLY MOVING IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT BUT AGREE
STRATUS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO ALL SITES FROM
8-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY VS.
YESTERDAY WITH SOME POSSIBLY ON THE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE SIDE IN
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH
MORNING HOURS BUT BE TEMPERED BY SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN.

A SWIFT MOVING S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SUSTAINING A
MCS IN KS/OK/MO THIS MORNING AND IS ACTING TO FLATTEN THE ALREADY
WEAK H7-H5 RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE MCS WILL SHIFT INTO OK/AR THROUGH THE DAWN HOURS AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT GUSTS OUT. HOWEVER, HRRR/ARW SUGGEST A
CONVERGENT BAND DEVELOPING FROM THIS OUTFLOW IN SOUTH AR AND NORTH LA
BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN THAT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST MS BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WITH SUCH A WARM
START THIS MORNING, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED 11AM-12PM
AND ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-20 AND
HWY 82 CORRIDORS. GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN WEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE BAND AND THIS MAY PROMOTE
BETTER UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS SUPPORTED BY SPC SSEO OUTPUT. STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED WINDS IN THE 40-60 MPH
RANGE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WILL NOT FORMALLY INTRODUCE A LIMITED
THREAT OF SEVERE JUST YET AS TO MONITOR HI-RES TRENDS AND ALLOW FOR
MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS BUT SOME
NEW ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN NORTH MS ALONG AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAVE PLACED 20% POPS FOR FAR NORTH TIER
COUNTIES. PWATS NEAR 2" WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY
ALSO SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH MID EVENING HOURS WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY EXPECTED. /ALLEN/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LOCKED IN PLACE AND A CONTINUATION OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WE HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING.

WILL PRETTY MUCH HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING AIRMASS
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTH WHERE INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS MAXIMUMS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AS BELIEVE THIS LEVEL OF WARMING WILL STILL BE LIKELY
GIVEN MID AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIMES.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROFFINESS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO EASE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL QUICKLY STALL OVER THE NORTH AND NOT OFFER
ANYMORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE COOL AIR
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...INCREASED
CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAXIMUMS TO REACH
AROUND 90...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  73  94  72 /  50  27  32  19
MERIDIAN      93  72  94  71 /  49  24  41  17
VICKSBURG     92  72  94  72 /  51  24  24  19
HATTIESBURG   94  75  95  73 /  52  30  50  21
NATCHEZ       90  74  92  72 /  54  30  40  23
GREENVILLE    93  73  94  73 /  50  20  19  14
GREENWOOD     92  73  94  72 /  46  20  27  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

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MSZ046-022020-
KEMPER MS-
249 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...STRONG STORMS APPROACHING KEMPER LAKE AND DE KALB...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLUFF SPRINGS AT 249 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN KEMPER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3292 8851 3275 8850 3271 8886 3292 8886
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 265DEG 18KT 3282 8876

DL