Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS NE/E MS WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN N/CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF RAIN
COOLED POCKETS, HEAT INDICES ARE IN THE 100-105F RANGE. EXPECT THESE
ELEVATED VALUES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COMPACT S/WV TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
PROVIDING LIFT IS COMBINING WITH NEAR 3500 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG WITH A
CONVERGENCE BAND MOVING ACROSS NORTH MS TO SUPPORT SCT/NUM
SHOWERS/STORMS. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG WITH SOME PEA HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS REPORTED. THESE HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BAND IN NE MS WHERE GREATER DIVERGENT FLOW AND
SOME ORGANIZATION IS PRESENT. FARTHER SOUTH, WEAKER SHEAR AND
FORCING SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE AND POTENCY LESS. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND MAIN
LEAD WAVE FORCING PULLS AWAY. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ALONG MS/TN LINE AS RESIDUAL WEAK POSITIVE TILTED
TROUGHING LINGERS.

FOR FRIDAY, A LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE TROUGH/BAND WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL COMBINE AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY FOR A POSSIBLE LINEAR
ORGANIZATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY EARLY AFTN IN NW AREAS. WITH
VERTICAL TOTALS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TOWARDS 27C, DEEPER LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO 25KT AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS, SOME
STORMS ACROSS THE DELTA TO HWY 82 CORRIDOR COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON GRAPHICAL MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
NOW. ANOTHER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT INDICES WHICH WILL BE NEAR 105F
FOR A COUPLE HOURS FOR DELTA AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION,
100-104F HEAT INDICES WILL OCCUR AS SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS SOUTH OF I-20. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S, FURTHER INCREASING THE HEAT STRESS.

ARKLAMISS WILL REMAIN ON THE NW FLOW CUSP SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING TRIES TO SHIFT EAST OVER REGION WITH TROUGHING ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY AND EMBEDDED S/WVS GLANCING NRN MS AND AL. EC HAS RIDGE
BUILDING IN STRONGER THEN GFS BUT STILL INDICATES SUBTLE WEAKNESSES
THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED COMPLEX ACROSS NE MS
SATURDAY AFTN. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE AND TIMING IS RIGHT, SOME
COULD BE SEVERE AS FAVORABLE THERMO PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS RISK. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...FOCUS 00Z WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE SCT SHRA/TSRA.
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED TO BEST TIME THE ACTIVITY FOR CERTAIN
SITES. THE EVENING LOOKS GENERALLY QUIET WITH SOME SITES HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-13Z. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  94  75  95 /  20  24  13  28
MERIDIAN      72  94  73  94 /  20  32  17  40
VICKSBURG     73  94  74  95 /  20  22  12  20
HATTIESBURG   74  95  75  95 /  20  22  12  22
NATCHEZ       73  92  75  93 /  20  21  12  20
GREENVILLE    75  95  75  95 /  34  37  22  39
GREENWOOD     73  94  74  93 /  34  45  28  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
234 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
081945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
234 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...FRIDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE IN THE
MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS. STAYING HYDRATED AND TAKING FREQUENT
BREAKS IS ADVISED IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THESE CONDITIONS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 105 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

CME

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 115
 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105
 DEGREES FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
HIGH...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 110 TO 114 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 109 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 100 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR ONE TO THREE
 DAYS.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ046-072110-
KEMPER MS-
339 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF DE KALB AT 339 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL KEMPER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3279 8835 3268 8864 3282 8869 3291 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 238DEG 9KT 3279 8861

JC

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