Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING MCS HAS PUSHED E INTO AL. DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
WNW FROM THIS COMPLEX FROM NEAR KHBG TO KTVR/KMLU. SCT TSRA HAS BEEN
REDEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...LARGER MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP ESE INTO CENTRAL AR.
EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THIS COMPLEX INTO NW SECTIONS OF OUR AREA 22Z-
00Z...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. HENCE HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST POPS
FOR THE EVENING IN W AND S SECTIONS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET...BUT GIVEN PERSISTENCE OFF LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE S AND W ALL NIGHT.

FOR FRI...DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER MID SOUTH PER LATEST BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT MODELS SHOW
HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS WITH PW VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. HENCE WILL TAILOR POPS WITH HIGHEST IN SW FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY DRIER AIR MAKES A BIGGER PUSH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...GFS MOS SEEMS TO HAVE TOO LARGE OF DIURNAL
RANGES GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS CLOSER TO ECMWF/NAM BLEND.                     /08/

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS OF LONG TERM LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH SHOULD PUSH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COOL FRONT
TOWARD OUR AREA NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSES THIS SETUP
AND FOLLOWS.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A RATHER LARGE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ONE OF WHICH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
ARKLAMISS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRING
THE FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS COME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. /08/28/

&&

.AVIATION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO AL...BUT NEW
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ON OUTFLOW FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAN TO MLU. A
PEPPERING OF SHOWERS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER SE AR. WILL JUST HAVE
VICINITY TS POSSIBILITIES UP UNTIL 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
MIST DEVLOPING THERAFTER. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST WILL DEVELOP
FROM 10 TO 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THEREAFTER./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  91  68  93 /  40  27   9   5
MERIDIAN      68  92  65  95 /  29   9   9   5
VICKSBURG     71  93  69  94 /  41  33   8   7
HATTIESBURG   71  92  69  94 /  40  15   7  17
NATCHEZ       71  92  69  94 /  40  30   6  17
GREENVILLE    73  91  72  93 /  40  20   8   6
GREENWOOD     69  91  67  92 /  34  26   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AEG/26/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
218 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
218 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

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STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
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FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ043-049-102335-
RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-
607 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
607 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF RIDGELAND AT 607 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE
PONDING AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON AND CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3230 8996 3239 9009 3239 9008 3239 9007
      3240 9007 3240 9011 3242 9013 3248 9008
      3241 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 304DEG 12KT 3241 9006

ARZ075-LAZ009-MSZ019-034-035-040>042-110025-
CHICOT AR-WASHINGTON MS-SUNFLOWER MS-SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-
HUMPHREYS MS-YAZOO MS-EAST CARROLL LA-
623 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
WAS LOCATED FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCMILLAN CORNER TO 3 MILES
SOUTH OF MILLIKIN AT 623 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN YAZOO...EXTREME WEST CENTRAL HUMPHREYS...
NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA...NORTHERN SHARKEY...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
SUNFLOWER...WASHINGTON AND EASTERN CHICOT COUNTIES...AND NORTHEASTERN
EAST CARROLL PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3352 9077 3328 9076 3316 9069 3285 9066
      3286 9131 3294 9131 3296 9127 3297 9128
      3300 9126 3301 9132 3352 9133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 270DEG 8KT 3346 9121 3292 9123

MSZ049-050-110045-
SCOTT MS-RANKIN MS-
701 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
701 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEESBURG AT 701 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER AND MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL RANKIN AND WESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3254 8960 3230 8960 3232 8991 3244 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 267DEG 9KT 3240 8985

MSZ035-041-042-110035-
SHARKEY MS-HUMPHREYS MS-YAZOO MS-
707 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
707 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NITTA YUMA AT 704 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN YAZOO...SOUTH CENTRAL HUMPHREYS AND
NORTHEASTERN SHARKEY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3297 9033 3277 9043 3292 9085 3309 9077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 290DEG 31KT 3297 9071

MSZ018-019-034-110100-
WASHINGTON MS-SUNFLOWER MS-BOLIVAR MS-
716 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
716 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES WEST OF PARCHMAN TO 3 MILES WEST OF TRIBBETT
AT 714 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER AND MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN BOLIVAR...SUNFLOWER AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3397 9046 3335 9046 3333 9089 3401 9086
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 270DEG 7KT 3392 9054 3373 9074
          3336 9083

MSZ042-043-110220-
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
821 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
821 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE YAZOO AT 820 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER AND MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE FROM
ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN YAZOO AND MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3270 8979 3244 9009 3268 9058 3300 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 295DEG 19KT 3277 9036