Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE SREF SHOW THE WAVE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING INTENSE STORMS ALONG AND OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST
MOVING NORTHEAST. IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS COULD MOVE BACK INTO OUR
AREA POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TONIGHT. OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO. HAVE ELECTED TO
CONTINUE POPS ALL NIGHT WITH HIGH POPS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THE
RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

STORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE WET PERIOD CONTINUES. /SW/

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK)...THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OUR REGION WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM WEAK TROUGHING AND
PERTURBED UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PRIMARILY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS
TROUGHING PULLS WELL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY (FOR THOSE
WHO HAVE GROWN TIRED OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) THIS PATTERN
CHANGE FOR OUR REGION LOOKS TO ONLY GRADUALLY CUT BACK ON RAIN
CHANCES.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE FACT THE RETREATING TROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WILL SHARPEN AND PROMPT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THEREBY INDUCING A STRONG PIPELINE OF GULF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. SINCE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR REGION
WILL NOT YET BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE CAPPED TO CONVECTION THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN ZONES. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TRENDING
DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL WORK TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN WESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME ALTHOUGH AREAS
IN THE EAST SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING BUT PROBABLY NOT ANY TRUE
HEAT UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY THERE ARE NO SIGNALS FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OF COURSE POSSIBLE.

BY MONDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT ON DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BECOME MUCH HARDER TO COME BY DURING THIS TIME AND THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIP GENERATED BY THE GFS WAS DEEMED TOO HIGH AND THE EURO AND
ITS MOS STATISTICS FOR TEMPS AND POPS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY. HEAT
WILL INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS WITH MID 90S LIKELY BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS SHOWING SIGNALS FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON
MIXING WHICH WOULD LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. HOWEVER...AT THIS JUNCTURE I AM SKEPTICAL OF
THIS ASPECT OF THE MODELS SINCE VERY MOIST SOILS WILL BE QUICK TO
CONTRIBUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME
CAPPING COULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH (AND THEREFORE ALSO HELP TO
KEEP DEWPOINTS HIGH). WITH ALL THIS IN MIND HEAT INDEX VALUES
GETTING AT LEAST TO THE CENTURY MARK IS A DECENT BET FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK AND THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORIES
IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND NOT MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO YET. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS REGION THIS AFTN WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS NE AL AND CENTRL/S MS. WILL MONITOR SITES CLOSE
FOR DIRECT TSRA IMPACT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP VCTS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDS COULD OCCUR AT ANY SITE IF DIRECTLY IMPACTED. NORTHERN SITES ARE
LESS LIKELY TO HAVE TSRA WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT.
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL OVERSPREAD SW MS STARTING 06Z THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL SITES WITH GTR LAST. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  83  68  88 /  47  74  42  54
MERIDIAN      69  82  66  90 /  35  68  40  47
VICKSBURG     70  84  68  88 /  50  72  46  57
HATTIESBURG   71  84  69  90 /  33  79  25  46
NATCHEZ       69  83  68  87 /  47  76  24  53
GREENVILLE    71  85  70  87 /  46  63  61  61
GREENWOOD     70  83  68  88 /  42  64  57  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
220 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
261930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
220 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

ALLEN

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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LAZ008-009-015-016-252230-
RICHLAND LA-EAST CARROLL LA-MADISON LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
451 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
451 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER WARDEN AT 451 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN WEST CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN MADISON...EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN EAST CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND PARISHES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3265 9155 3246 9139 3242 9162 3257 9171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 240DEG 9KT 3253 9154

MRM