Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...INTERMITTENTLY STORMY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA...THANKS LARGELY TO THE SUPPORT OF AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...AND A
RESPECTABLE ~30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. EARLIER ON IN THE EVENING...THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ORGANIZED IN A MORE LINEAR FASHION AND PRODUCED VERY
APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT LATER ON TODAY. MEANWHILE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN A CORRIDOR FROM
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE AREA.

BY THIS AFTERNOON HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NEW DEVELOPMENT
ON THE SOUTH/EAST SIDE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY FOCUSED
ALONG BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW. UNLIKE THE
PREVIOUS DAYS WHEN CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SPORADIC IN TERMS OF
LOCATION...INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MAKE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
THE DAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK SURGE OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
DELTA BY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THANKS TO AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A
MORE ORGANIZED THREAT. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH/EAST MISSISSIPPI...THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE LATE WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
TO THE EAST. /DL/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE AND INTERMITTENTLY STORMY ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...PERHAPS EVEN INTO FRIDAY. BY
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASINGLY TAKE CONTROL...LIMITING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND INCREASING HEAT.

THE WEAK COMPOSITE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR FOCUSING CONVECTION IN
THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO DO SO AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY...CONCENTRATING
PRECIP PROBABILITIES MAINLY ALONG...AND PARTICULARLY SOUTH...OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON OF
COURSE BUT ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OWING TO THE ADDITIONAL FORCING OFFERED BY THE BOUNDARY IN
QUESTION.

ON THURSDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL BE DIFFUSING...BUT
MIGHT BE A FOCUS FOR A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY. REGARDLESS IF THIS UPSTREAM STORM
CLUSTER MATERIALIZES AND ULTIMATELY ENTERS OUR REGION THE CHANCES
OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN GOOD BECAUSE OF EXPECTED DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY DONE THURSDAY EVENING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL INCOMING DISTURBANCES WANES.

ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND LEFTOVER VERY MINOR BOUNDARIES AROUND TO SPUR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUNSHINE SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE PLENTIFUL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW A SUBTLE
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN.

THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AGREES SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE WILL STILL
BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON STORMS...BUT
LIMITED LIFT AND THE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ISOLATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE AROUND 90 AT MOST...CREEPING INTO THE LOW 90S ON FRIDAY...AND
CREEPING FURTHER INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DEFINED LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE MOISTURE AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL BE HIGH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LEADING TO
RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES AND APPRECIABLE HEAT INDEX VALUES. THESE
VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
BEFORE THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OUT AND WILL BE A FORECAST FACTOR TO
MONITOR GOING FORWARD.

BUT...FOR NOW...THE HWO WILL BE KEPT CLEAR OF HAZARDS IN THE LONG
TERM. ANOTHER THING THAT WILL REQUIRE MONITORING IS A NON-ZERO RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGH INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
ISOLATED AND NOT WORTHY OF HWO MENTION. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MIGHT FOCUS POTENTIAL IN A WAY QUITE
UNPREDICTABLE AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TIME. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CATEGORY LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF JAN. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT GWO AND GTR BRINGING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR
VISBYS/MVFR CIGS. AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY IMPACT JAN/HKS/GTR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...AND MEI/HBG MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BRIEF CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  71  90  70 /  37  34  32  17
MERIDIAN      91  68  90  69 /  42  40  33  21
VICKSBURG     90  68  91  70 /  42  25  31  16
HATTIESBURG   91  71  89  72 /  25  26  55  24
NATCHEZ       88  72  88  70 /  39  22  55  19
GREENVILLE    90  72  91  72 /  38  14  19  19
GREENWOOD     90  69  91  71 /  45  21  20  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
250945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
444 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

LAZ016-023-025-MSZ040-047-048-241320-
WARREN MS-ISSAQUENA MS-HINDS MS-TENSAS LA-FRANKLIN LA-MADISON LA-
737 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
737 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME
WEST MISSISSIPPI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF VALLEY PARK TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LIDDIEVILLE AT 734 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN HINDS...SOUTHEASTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN
WARREN COUNTIES...AND MADISON...FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN TENSAS
PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3217 9188 3218 9183 3222 9182 3225 9177
      3227 9177 3264 9087 3243 9053 3199 9162
      3214 9191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1234Z 303DEG 22KT 3255 9087 3217 9179

MRM