Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1033 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...YPICAL MID JUNE DAY ON TAP WITH ISO TYPE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS REACH THE 90-94 RANGE.
GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. AS FOR WHAT TO
EXPECT WITH THE LATER ISO ACTIVITY...MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG ONCE THE LOWER 90S
ARE REACHED WITH 68-69 SFC DEWPTS. OVERALL...THAT IS A TYPICAL SORT
OF INSTABILITY RANGE THAT IS MET THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHAT IS MORE
ABNORMAL IS THE LOW LEVEL (0-3KM) LAPSE RATES AND THE DCAPE. DUE TO
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...DCAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN
1100-1300 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...WITH SFC TEMPS 92-93...LL LAPSE RATES
LOOK TO PEAK BETWEEN 8.9 AND 9.1 C/KM. THESE TWO ELEMENTS ARE A BIT
CONCERNING WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS
REACHING THE SFC WITH ANY STORM...EVEN WHEN THE CORE OF THE STORM
MAY NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SO...MY EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT A FEW
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-50 MPH.
MAIN TIMING FOR ANY OF THIS ISO ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 1-6 PM.
/CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AT TAF
SITES. POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR (BKN
CEILINGS) THIS MID MORNING AS CU FIELD DEVELOPS ALONG WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT KMEI
AND KHBG TONIGHT. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...RATHER SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET OVER WESTERN AL AND FAR
EASTERN MS BROUGHT A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
TO MY FAR EASTERN ZONES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY...AN EVEN WEAKER VERSION OF
THIS CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE COUPLET SHOULD SET UP IN THE HEART OF
THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT OF COMPETING INFLUENCES SHOULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA (ALTHOUGH LIKELY MOST FOCUSED IN NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION). PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF
GUSTY WIND DUE TO WET MICROBURST PROCESSES...BUT AT THIS POINT
INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LACKING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AND PROBABLY PEAK A
DEGREE (OR PERHAPS TWO) MORE THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY IN MOST
SPOTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK AROUND 100 DEGREES BRIEFLY IN
SOME LOCALES. EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS TO DIMINISH BY 9
OR 10 PM WITH LOWS IN 68 TO 73 RANGE BY DAWN FRIDAY.

FRIDAY HOLDS POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER DEGREE HOTTER THAN THURSDAY IN
MANY CASES AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER FOCUSED EVEN FURTHER WEST WILL
PROMOTE HOT LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW VECTORS. THE DIRTY
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CENTER WILL BE DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF OUR REGION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...INCREASING POTENTIAL A BIT IN THESE AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AT BEST WITH HEAT THE LARGER STORY. MICROBURST PROCESSES
MAY RESULT IN SOME BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW NO MENTION IN
THE HWO IS DEEMED NECESSARY. /BB/

LONG TERM...MODELS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEEKEND FORECAST
THAT LOOKS TO BE INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
SAGS DOWN INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. LOW LEVEL
THERMAL AXIS SETS UP ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD RESULT IN ENHANCED
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE W/NW AS TROUGHS DIG ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND NORTHEAST
COASTS...OPENING REGION UP TO IMPACTS FROM IMPULSES MOVING E/SE IN
THIS FLOW. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASED RISK FOR
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. WILL NOT
COMPLETELY LIMIT POPS TO AFTERNOON/EVENING DIURNAL PEAK GIVEN THAT
NW FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW FOR SOME NOCTURNAL MCS IMPACTS.
PARAMETERS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY
GIVEN VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE 26-28 DEGREE RANGE...MLCAPE VALUES
~3000 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING...AND W/NW MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH TENDS TO
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN AXIS OF TROUGHING
EXTENDING SW TOWARD NW GULF COAST. ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL/GULF OF
MEXICO AS MORE OF THE DOMINANT FEATURE. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS AT
LEAST SOME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE RISK...BUT GFS IS MORE ACTIVE WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION. GEFS/UKMET/
CANADIAN GENERALLY SUPPORT THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE LEANED LONGER
TERM FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS RESULTS IN CONTINUED CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DECENT
LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY AND WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST A NOMINAL RISK OF STRONGER STORMS WITH MICROBURST
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. /AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  70  94  71 /  16  14  17  15
MERIDIAN      94  67  95  69 /  13  12  19  19
VICKSBURG     92  69  93  69 /  16  14  12  12
HATTIESBURG   94  70  95  71 /  15  14  20  19
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  70 /  14  13  12  13
GREENVILLE    94  72  95  73 /  15  14  20  18
GREENWOOD     93  70  94  72 /  19  14  21  21

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/SW/BB/AEG/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
201915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
206 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

2

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

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MSZ042-043-192030-
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
301 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF LITTLE YAZOO AT 302 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL YAZOO AND WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3265 9058 3282 9040 3266 9022 3254 9038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 137DEG 13KT 3267 9038

JA

MSZ042-043-192040-
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
312 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER MYRLEVILLE AND LITTLE YAZOO
AT 312 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL YAZOO AND WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3280 9060 3295 9040 3271 9017 3259 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 137DEG 13KT 3271 9032

JA