Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1045 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST FOR TODAY UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
ADJUST TIMING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MINOR. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOCUSED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEEP
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA IS FORCING A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THERE HAS THUS
FAR BEEN VERY LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS. HIRES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS BAND CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING INTO ALABAMA BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MORNING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WHEN SURFACE TEMPS HIT THE 60 TO 65
DEGREE RANGE...WHICH WILL HAPPEN IN PATCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
EVEN GIVEN RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST SOME MIXING IN OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH MENTIONED SHOWER BAND AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND THERE
STILL WILL BE AN IMPULSE OR TWO LEFT TO SWING RAPIDLY DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD KICK UP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES. HIRES HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS LATTER
ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE SWATHS OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 6 TO 7
PM...POSSIBLY OVER 50 MPH...WHICH IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE OF THE SITUATION AND NO LARGE
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. HAIL POTENTIAL AS ADVERTISED SHOULD FAVOR
SMALL HAIL SIZES ALTHOUGH A TOP END STORM FOR THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
ACHIEVE SOME STONES TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

ONE FINAL COMMENT IS THAT LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS SOME CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH IS NOT GOOD NEWS CONSIDERING FLOODING
SITUATION ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIKELIHOOD OF
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY EXCEEDING AN INCH ARE VERY LOW AND TODAY'S
RAINFALL IN GENERAL IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WORSEN
ANY CURRENT FLOODING. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HYDROLOGY...MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH ARE EXPECTED ON AVERAGE TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO ONE INCH
POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
SERIOUSLY AGGRAVATE THE CURRENT FLOODING SITUATION...BUT ANY RAIN AT
THIS POINT WILL RUN OFF QUICKLY AND POSSIBLY SLOW DOWN THE DRAINAGE
PROCESS. /EC/

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REGARDING THE SET-UP FOR TODAY'S
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.  AN IMPRESSIVELY COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH H500 TEMPERATURES ~ -25 DEG C WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TODAY. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS BY MID
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. JET ENERGY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL LINE
UP WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE LIKELY EXCEEDING 700 J/KG. THIS
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL YIELD LOW-TOP NEAR SURFACE-
BASED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 6000
FT..SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH JUST ABOUT ANY STORM AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS COULD CERTAINLY MIX DOWN GIVEN STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE
RATES/ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND 30-35KTS OF LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARD PRODUCTS AS
THEY ARE WITH A MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND 40-50 MPH WIND
GUST POTENTIAL. AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF EAST OF THE
REGION...AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO
AND THROUGH THE CWA.  JUST AS THE CASE WAS LAST NIGHT...THERE ARE
SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE WITH THEIR TIMING OF SAID SYSTEM IN BRINGING IT
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXITING IT MONDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY DESPITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 09/00Z. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AT THOSE LOACTIONS THAT
MANAGE TO SEE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NIGHT...BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
10-14Z TIMEFRAME FROM FOG./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  41  67  43 /  68  27   0   0
MERIDIAN      65  40  68  38 /  70  42   0   0
VICKSBURG     63  41  67  41 /  73  15   0   0
HATTIESBURG   69  44  69  41 /  70  35   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  40  65  43 /  63  20   0   0
GREENVILLE    63  43  67  45 /  80  15   0   0
GREENWOOD     66  43  67  44 /  70  26   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/26/EC/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
545 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
091045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
545 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
AND WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH.

IN ADDITION...MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING
VERY HIGH DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE CHECK LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

EC

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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LAZ023>026-082020-
TENSAS LA-FRANKLIN LA-CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
234 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
234 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JIGGER AT 234 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CATAHOULA...NORTHEASTERN CONCORDIA...SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3211 9172 3185 9134 3178 9136 3166 9148
      3197 9186
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 311DEG 29KT 3198 9170

DHB

LAZ024-026-082025-
CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
239 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF WILDSVILLE AT 239 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CATAHOULA AND NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISHES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3184 9176 3165 9150 3162 9152 3159 9150
      3159 9143 3158 9140 3154 9144 3152 9152
      3145 9152 3138 9146 3136 9148 3139 9155
      3143 9155 3141 9158 3139 9158 3166 9190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 311DEG 29KT 3167 9175

DHB

LAZ016-MSZ047-082035-
WARREN MS-MADISON LA-
249 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF TALLULAH AT 249 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY...AND MADISON PARISH SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3248 9132 3225 9076 3216 9082 3216 9085
      3213 9084 3211 9088 3213 9091 3210 9093
      3209 9091 3208 9094 3219 9117 3222 9112
      3225 9113 3225 9118 3222 9123 3232 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 295DEG 37KT 3235 9126

DHB